[Column] Korea’s survival strategy after the war

Lee Kyung-soo

The author, a former ambassador to Germany, is vice chairman of the Korean Council on Foreign Relations.

The war in Ukraine has become an inflection point that fundamentally changed the international order shaped after World War II and through the post-Cold War period. First, the international norm of territorial integrity was ignored in the pursuit of changing the status quo by power, and the principle of imperialism has returned. Furthermore, it was confirmed that international peace and security are not guaranteed when a permanent member of the UN Security Council is an active stakeholder in a dispute. The nuclear taboo has also been broken as nuclear weapons have entered the realm of possible usage, instead of being a means of deterrence.

The situation is shocking to Korea, which has adopted democracy and the market economy and enjoyed the benefits and security of globalization amid the international order offered by liberalism. The war in Ukraine, which took place amidst nationalism and strategic competition between the United States and China, has created a situation amounting to World War III, as the world is struggling in deadly fights over global supply chains amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Many countries are in strategic dilemmas where they cannot side with a certain superpower or seek independent survival.

If the international order based on liberalism cannot resolve the cause of the changes, the world will return to a Hobbesian state of nature, in which the balance of power, divisions of influence among superpowers, the frequent formation and dismantlement of alliances, formations of hegemony and wars will function as operating principles. Depending on ideologies and values, supporters of liberalism and followers of authoritarianism will unite against each other. Depending on their interests, regional and functional blocs will form to seek independent survival.

It is a positive sign that the free world is correcting its course. The United States is seeking to change its thinking and policy in a larger direction even amid Trumpism and economic interdependence. The U.S. has abandoned the expectation that China will democratize or contribute to an international order, and started restoring a norm-based international order by forming alliances to promote common values and freedom.

Germany and France have ended their eastward policies based on dialogue, economic cooperation, trade and inclusive cultural policies toward Russia. Facing an existential security crisis after failing to stop North Korea from completing its nuclear program by trusting Pyongyang’s good will, South Korea also started to existentially react for its survival. It has decided to join the alliance of the free world and regional order.

Korea, in a special geopolitical environment, must clearly define its stance and perception toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during the formative process of a new international order. It must directly look into the realistic international politics and set clear principles to ensure its national security.

First, the Korean Peninsula, a victim of superpowers’ power contest, is suffering a national division as a result. This is why Korea must support Ukraine, which resists changing the status quo by force.

Second, Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union, have traditionally been expansionist forces targeting the Korean Peninsula. We must never forget that immediately after our liberation from Japan, the Soviet Union sent its troops to the Korean Peninsula, established a pro-Soviet regime in North Korea, endorsed its war on the South and offered military support to the North.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a déjà vu of the Soviet Union’s armed intervention on the Korean Peninsula in the past. It could provide some grounds for Russia to enter the Korean Peninsula in case of emergency by citing “security instability” as it shares a border with North Korea.

Third, North Korea will likely learn the wrong lesson from the situation. The North’s new law on nuclear weapons policy announced in September last year is a doctrine that followed Russia’s basic principles of national nuclear strategy announced in June 2020. In his speech made on the day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that he may use a nuclear weapon if another country intervenes. It served as a motive for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to declare that he also can preemptively use nuclear weapons under an existential threat such as a decisive defeat or regime change. If Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine becomes a reality, Kim can press his nuclear button on the Korean Peninsula.

Fourth, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after denying its sovereignty and culture can fuel China’s desire for territorial claims over the Korean Peninsula based on Sinocentrism, as evidenced by the Northeast Project.

South Korea, which accomplished security and economic advancement based on cooperation with the free world and Korea-U.S. alliance, is the best outcome of the post-war international order. Participating in the process of forming a new liberal international order should be the survival strategy and vision of Korea. After the war in Ukraine, it became clear what choice Korea must make to ensure its survival.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.