U.S. expert says North unready to carry out 7th nuke test

Bruce Bennet, security expert with RAND Corporation, speaks at the Asan Plenum 2023 in Seoul on Tuesday. [ASAN INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES]

North Korea is not technologically ready to conduct its seventh nuclear test, a noted U.S. security expert with RAND Corporation told a forum in Seoul on Tuesday.

“If Kim Jong-un had the technology under control, he would have done the test by now,” Bruce Bennet said, speaking at the Asan Plenum 2023 at the Grand Hyatt Seoul. “If you put a 5-kiloton nuclear warhead down on an airfield, you’re not going to neutralize the airfield. You got to put a much bigger warhead down. I don’t think he’s looking for 2-kiloton or 5-kiloton nuclear warheads.

“I think he’s looking for something much more powerful, and to get those in miniaturized version, that’s a challenge technologically and it takes years.”

Experts, citing satellite images of the North’s nuclear test site, have said for months that the regime appears ready to conduct a nuclear weapons test, which would be its seventh.

The last was in 2017, to which the UN Security Council issued a sanctions resolution, and even partners like China urged North Korea to refrain from further provocative military actions.

North Korea has been ramping up its military activity in recent years, testing over 90 ballistic missiles including the powerful Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). It also showcased this year its capacity to launch ICBMs powered by solid propellants.

Other experts taking part in the forum said North Korea may be refraining from the expected nuclear test because of politics with Beijing.

“The nuclear test card is not a card for America or South Korea. This is a card which can be played by Kim Jong-un towards Xi Jinping,” said Thae Yong-ho, former North Korean ambassador to the U.K. who defected to the South and is now serving as a legislator with South Korea's conservative People Power Party.

Noting that the North has not conducted a nuclear test since 2017, quickly followed by Kim and Xi’s first meeting in March the following year, Thae pointed to the “strategic communication“ Beijing and Pyongyang have agreed to maintain ever since.

Thae said the expression can denote a certain pledge between the two leaders, in which Beijing will not ask Pyongyang to denuclearize and will also block new sanctions resolutions at the United Nations.

As for what Kim Jong-un pledged in return, Thae said the North Korean leader may have promised "not to carry out a nuclear test without [prior notification] or approval from Xi Jining.”

The forum also focused on South Korea’s response to the growing North Korean nuclear threat, including noticeably growing public support for Seoul's development of an independent nuclear deterrent.

Despite the considerable alarm such rhetoric may cause Washington, Seoul’s military ally, it is also something that the U.S. government could use as a stick when it comes to dealing with the North.

“I have to admit that when North Korea did their first ICBM-related test last year, I was just absolutely surprised that the U.S., at least publicly, didn't do anything to stop them from doing a second test,” Bennet said. “We didn't say hey, if you do a second test, we’re going to reinvigorate nuclear weapons storage in South Korea. We’re going to provide information operations against you. Kim is scared to death about outside information.”

BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]