Persuading the people matters for diplomacy

Yoon Young-kwan

The author, a former foreign minister, is an emeritus professor at Seoul National University.

Many important agreements were made in the recent South Korea-U.S. summit in Washington, which was marked by the warm U.S. hospitality toward President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Over the most volatile nuclear threats from North Korea, the two sides agreed to establish a standing Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) to ensure that the Pentagon shares information on operating its nuclear weapons with South Korea and allows the ally to participate in the planning stage when needed. Most of all, Washington agreed to increase the deployment of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines to the Korean Peninsula and more regular deployments of U.S. strategic assets, including carrier strike groups, to South Korea so that its people can be assured of the U.S.’s rock-solid determination to deter North Korean provocations. In a rare move, U.S. President Joe Biden warned that it will be the end of the Pyongyang regime if it uses nuclear weapons against South Korea or the U.S. Could Uncle Sam really ease South Koreans’ security concerns once and for all? It largely depends on how successfully the NCG will reflect demands from South Korea in its upcoming meetings.

Both sides also agreed to efficiently merge South Korea’s conventional weapons capability to their joint military strategy planning as part of the Pentagon’s Integrated Deterrence. Given the diluted effect of sanctions due to North Korea’s cyberhacking, the two allies’ cooperation on cybersecurity technology, policy, strategy and information sharing should be welcomed.

The agreement to launch a dialogue for next-gen emerging and core technologies for second battery, bio, digital and quantum fronts also carries great significance. As Yoon’s presidential office and the White House promised to directly command the cooperation, it will help escalate the military alliance to a technology alliance to develop our cutting-edge technology. The question is how to reduce the heavy burden on our chipmakers and carmakers from the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPSand Science Act in the U.S.

Overall, the summit was successful. But what is very important for the executive branch in a democracy is to effectively promote its policy or diplomatic achievements. If a government scores the full 10 points in diplomacy, it can be seen as a performance of 15 points or five points depending on the promotion of its diplomatic accomplishments. What matters is a government effectively convincing the people of the justification for its diplomatic choice.

Only five to six years ago, no one knew international politics will change as drastically as today. At that time, Russia threatened the security of Ukraine by mobilizing pro-Russian rebels in East Ukraine, but stopped short of invading the neighbor. In the Korean Peninsula, the PyeongChang Winter Olympics fanned hopes for denuclearization and peace. The advent of the Trump presidency in America sounded loud alarms on political and diplomatic stages, yet he didn’t abandon engagement policy with China entirely. Thanks to the developments, South Korea could have some room for diplomatic maneuvers with its ambiguous strategy of “balanced diplomacy” and “security with the U.S. and economy with China.” But not anymore.

After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia threatened to use nuclear weapons — an international taboo for decades — on its neighbor. The war could drag on until the end of 2024. Coupled with the energy crisis, food shortage, and supply chain disruptions, the global recession will continue. If Russia wins the war, the rules-based international order — a foundation for Korea’s economic development and democratic transition — will be broken and headed to the new world of power-based justice. Meanwhile, North Korea threatens to turn South Korea into ashes with missiles tipped with miniaturized nuclear warheads. In a recent meeting at Harvard University, security experts reached the consensus that North Korea aims to possess up to 300 nuclear weapons like the UK or France.

In the meantime, China tries to weaken the Korea-U.S. alliance after imposing economic sanctions on the South for the Thaad deployment to defend itself from North Korea’s missile attacks. U.S. politicians are rushing to “China bashing,” while Chinese President Xi Jinping vows to unify Taiwan within his term, intensifying the Sino-U.S. confrontation. As there is no military dialogue between Washington and Beijing, any accidental clash can escalate into a war beyond control.

Under such precarious circumstances, South Korea is compelled to choose between America and China on both the security and economic fronts. The Yoon Suk Yeol administration chose the diplomatic path of strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance, improving Korea-Japan relations and pushing for a global pivot state, while pursuing reciprocal relations with China. If so, the government must explain to the people why the choice is better than others. In other words, the government must convince the people of the justification for the superiority of its current diplomatic stance over the past one prioritizing China over the U.S. The divisive political battle among politicians over President Yoon’s visit to the U.S. owes much to a critical dearth of government efforts to persuade the public about the new direction of its diplomacy. Without changing its communication strategy primarily based on self-justification, only peripheral political attacks without substance will sweep the political stage for the time being.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.