Can Trump end the war after Kim’s troop dispatch?
Published: 10 Nov. 2024, 19:29
Koh Yu-hwan
The author is an emeritus professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University and former director of the Institute for Unification Studies.
North Korea’s troop dispatch to Russia and the re-election of former U.S. President Donald Trump will change the global security landscape. The two developments are major factors to alter the course of the ongoing Ukraine war. The North’s deployment of its soldiers to the battlefields has certainly bolstered Russia’s ability to continue the war, but Trump’s re-election has also increased the possibility of an early end to the protracted war. The North’s deployment is even being portrayed as a “European equivalent of the Cuban Missile Crisis.”
The North Korea-Russia summit held in Pyongyang last June portended the North’s dispatch of troops to the Ukraine war. At the meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, which mandated that both sides provide military and other assistance without delay using all available means if either side is invaded by external forces. Through the summit, Pyongyang and Moscow restored their alliance by pledging to establish a “multipolar world order” and forge a common front to fight against the “double standards” and “rules-based order” orchestrated by the United States.
While campaigning in the U.S. presidential election, Trump vowed to end the war “in 24 hours, if elected,” without outlining a concrete plan. If Trump keeps this promise, the Ukraine war could end early. We cannot know whether North Korea had bet on a Trump victory and decided to send its troops to the war with an early end in mind. But if the war ends as soon as Trump has promised, North Korea could gain significant spoils from its short-term participation — just like the Soviet Union, which abruptly declared war on Japan at the end of World War II and secured jurisdiction over the northern side of the 38th parallel on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea may have already received from Russia a lot of foreign currency, food, energy and advanced weapons technology by jumping into the war, not to mention gaining experience in modern warfare using cutting-edge equipment like drones and satellites. The deployment of North Korean soldiers will affect our security. In the worst case scenario, South and North Korea could clash in the Ukraine War.
Even the possibility of World War III is being raised. Delivering the news about North Korean troops being deployed on the battlefield last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, warned, “This has opened a new chapter in world instability.” Dmitry Medvedev — deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and a close aide to Putin — joined the chorus. “If [the West] pours fuel on the fire, we will experience World War III,” he said.
The Ukraine war is at a crossroads between expansion and cessation. The war is exacerbated by the participation of the North, but it clearly faces a turning point after Trump’s return.
The North Korean troops’ casualties also can change depending on when and how Trump intervenes in a ceasefire. Of course, ceasefire negotiations can progress even before Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, but the possibility of an immediate ceasefire is not so high. And yet, if ceasefire talks start, battles could get much fiercer for either side to secure more favorable positions. In that case, the North Korean troops cannot avoid massive casualties.
In fact, a number of countries are involved in the Ukraine war to the extent of the war being called a de facto World War III. While the West, including the United States, the European Union and the NATO, supports Ukraine, anti-Western states like North Korea back Russia. They are joining the war, as they are sensitive to the changes in the world order the Ukraine war can bring. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine — one of the former Soviet republics and later a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States — abandoned its nuclear weapons and became a pro-Western country in exchange for economic support and security guarantees. That transformation represents Ukraine’s hope to ensure economic prosperity and security by joining the U.S.-led “rules-based order.” But Russia — fearing the expansion of the West’s influence — launched the war on Ukraine after annexing Crimea in 2014 to block NATO’s eastward advance. As a result, Ukraine has become the boundary between the West and Russia for the expansion of their power.
On the surface, China seems to brush off the North’s dispatch of troops to Russia. But Beijing’s discomfort with Pyongyang is deepening after North Korea approached Russia, following its sophistication of nuclear and missile technology. For instance, China withdrew from the North-Russia alliance to concentrate more on its strategic competition with the United States. Beijing and Pyongyang have so far maintained the China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance signed in 1961. Before pushing for the North-U.S. summit in June 2018, Kim Jong-un visited China to reaffirm the North-China ties. In his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Kim used expressions such as “one family” and “one trench.” But now, the North is taking a step closer to Russia by stressing “blood ties” with Russia.
However, China as a G2 member has no reason to get entangled in a new Cold War structure where the South-U.S.-Japan axis confronts the North-China-Russia axis. Instead, China values economic interdependence from the West. China is also bolstering cooperation with the other four members of the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — to effectively counter the U.S.-led “rules-based order” and buttress its influence in the Global South.
Before the dispatch of the troops, it was Russia that saved North Korea from a predicament, as the North could gain from selling a huge amount of shells to Russia. But it remains to be seen whether North Korea will be the winner even after the troop dispatch. Security experts say that Kim Jong-un wouldn’t bat an eye even if tens of thousands of his soldiers were killed on the battlefields. North Koreans have been brainwashed to not question the decisions of their supreme leader. But if massive casualties occur, even the Kim regime won’t be able to avoid internal criticisms for dispatching young soldiers to the battlefields to ease the North’s economic pain and acquire advanced military technology. Kim can’t justify the troop dispatch if massive casualties occur.
Recently, North Korea defined inter-Korean relations as “being between two hostile states” and distanced itself from China, its traditional socialist ally. The North’s stampede to the battlegrounds in Ukraine is a critical mistake by the Kim regime. The reason the North joined hands with Russia while getting away from China and the U.S. — the two pillars of the capitalist world economy — is the innate limitation of the Kim regime that places a top priority on maintaining the rigid system led by the supreme leader.
Trump who perceives Kim Jong-un as a friend has returned. But it’s uncertain whether the president-elect, who champions the America First policy, would still consider the North Korean leader as a “friend” if he wants to infringe on U.S. interests after going all-in on nuclear and missile development over the past four years. It is unclear whether Kim made the decision to dispatch troops to Russia with a ceasefire with Trump’s return in mind. But clearly, the North’s nuclear weapons and missiles are what undermines U.S. security interests. In other words, North Korea can hardly escape its current predicament as long as it possesses nuclear weapons and maintains the unique supreme leader system. For Kim, this winter should be a time to prepare to return to the negotiating table with Trump rather than participate in the Ukraine war.
Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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