A spaceport rendezvous rattles Northeast Asia

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A spaceport rendezvous rattles Northeast Asia

Published: 21 Sep. 2023, 20:16

Doo Jin-ho
The author is a research fellow at the Center for Security and Strategy at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un wrapped up his six-day “military and diplomatic tour” of Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Kim to the Vostochny space complex after Kim experienced the humiliation of two failed launches of a military reconnaissance satellite. Inspired by Russia’s space infrastructure, Kim expressed his gratitude to the Russian leader for showing the “heart of a space powerhouse.” The North Korean leader pledged to “join Russia’s holy war against imperialism.”

In response, Putin revealed his intention to help North Korea with its satellite development — the reason for the summit in the advanced spaceport in Russia’s Far East. After the meeting, Kim visited the Yuri Gagarin aircraft plant, the Knevichi airfield and the Pacific Fleet Command in Vladivostok, confirming the Russian version of the “three-axis system.” The summit at the Vostochny Cosmodrome was the prelude to forming a unified front for Russia and North Korea’s full-fledged cooperation to neutralize the international sanctions.

It seems that North Korea is to get involved in Russia’s “special military operation” — or the war in Ukraine — by supplying Russia with conventional weapons and ammunition, while Russia is to provide assistance to the North’s “five major defense tasks,” including military technology cooperation, in return. Certainly, it is a risky deal. Putin, for whom the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant, and Kim, whose international isolation has reached its peak, are both trying to find an exit strategy by summoning the “forgotten ally” and “old friend” to break through the predicament.

Russia is likely to accelerate cooperation on satellites, which is Kim’s long dream and has great political symbolism. In 2004, South Korea signed a space technology cooperation agreement with Russia to promote cooperation in the exploration and peaceful use of space. The South-Russia space technology cooperation — which has been in full swing since the establishment of the Russian Federation in 1991 — shone with the successful launch of Nuri in May.

Now, Russia is expected to apply its experiences in space cooperation with South Korea to North Korea to support condensed growth and independence of its space technology. Depending on the achievements of cooperation in the space sector and the level of trust in North Korea, Russia is expected to gradually pursue technological cooperation that will have a decisive impact on the completion of the North’s five defense tasks, including the atmospheric reentry technology for ICBMs and nuclear-powered submarines.

There is a possibility that the Russo-North military cooperation will develop into a trilateral cooperation involving North Korea, China and Russia. China and Russia have strengthened their joint exercises at sea and aerial reconnaissance in response to the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States. There is no reason for Beijing and Moscow to push out Pyongyang which is willing to stand up for anti-Americanism and anti-imperialism.

But China’s internal thoughts watching the close relationship between North Korea and Russia is complicated. Since embracing the North eventually leads to the question of “who will support North Korea,” it is consuming for China and Russia to fight over who should do the job. At a time when the U.S. and the European Union are signaling appeasement by declaring a noticeable shift from decoupling to de-risking, the trilateral cooperation could narrow China’s diplomatic room.

After the Putin-Kim summit, the government showed a speedy response. President Yoon Suk Yeol attended the ceremony to commemorate the Incheon landing of 1950 for the first time as the commander-in-chief and reaffirmed the importance of security cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, primarily based on the strong Korea-U.S. joint defense posture. At the U.N. General Assembly this week, President Yoon warned that the military trade between North Korea and Russia is in violation of U.N. resolutions and international norms. He engaged in policy cooperation with allies and partner countries.

The fatal nature of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia is that it can accelerate the speed and effectiveness of policy implementation even without public consensus or understanding thanks to their dictatorship. If North Korea quickly upgrades its outdated weapons system with Russia’s latest technology, its military strength could make a dramatic leap forward. The completion of its nuclear programs could come much earlier than expected.

To effectively respond to North Korea’s threats, Korea and the U.S. must elevate the level of technological alliance and reinforce their anti-submarine and sub trainings and joint air drills. Korea must encourage China to play a constructive role to prevent the trilateral cooperation on the other side from forming a military block. Security in Northeast Asia has become more serious since the Kim-Putin summit. It has become more important to maintain the ironclad readiness of the Korea-U.S. alliance and strengthen the execution power of the extended deterrence against North Korea’s nuclear weapons, as well as to unite national opinion.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.