North could replicate Hamas's strategy to attack South

North Korea

Published: 09 Oct. 2023, 17:06 Updated: 09 Oct. 2023, 19:20

North could replicate Hamas's strategy to attack South

A military parade in Pyonyang on Sept. 8 [NEWS1]

North Korea experts in Seoul said the large-scale surprise attack by Hamas militants on Israel over the weekend is a strategy that Pyongyang may also deploy against Seoul, combining traditional warfare with modern guerrilla tactics to wrongfoot South Korean security forces.

“The North Korean strategy would focus on causing extreme social chaos and security confusion in South Korea via very diverse attack patterns at the beginning of the war,” said a military official speaking with the JoongAng Ilbo on condition of anonymity on Monday. “This kind of strategy is intended to make it difficult for the South Korean military to find a point of counterattack.”

Hundreds of gunmen from Hamas staged a surprise attack against Israel on Saturday, reportedly killing at least 600 people in Israel and taking Israeli civilians and soldiers hostage.

Hamas also fired thousands of rockets at cities and towns in Israel to aid the attack.

“Israel’s air defense system may have had trouble intercepting the rockets because it was overwhelmed,” said Ryu Seong-yeop, a Korea Research Institute for Military Affairs researcher.

It’s something that the North Korean military may seek to replicate in a potential attack on South Korea, according to experts in Seoul.

According to military authorities, North Korea has deployed more than 1,000 long-range artillery pieces near the Demilitarized Zone, including 170 mm self-propelled howitzers and 240 mm multiple rocket launchers, which can fire directly at Seoul and its surrounding areas.

They estimated that if the North mobilized all this artillery, it could pour 16,000 rounds into the greater Seoul area in an hour.

A military parade in Seoul on Sept. 26 for the 75th Armed Forces Day exhibits weapons, including the Long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (L-SAM) [YONHAP]

According to South Korea’s defense white paper published last year, a North Korean invasion would likely incorporate special forces on the ground.

North Korea’s special forces number some 200,000. Their primary mission is to “use tunnels or various infiltration methods such as submarines, hovercraft, high-speed landing craft, and helicopters” to carry out combined operations.

North Korean special forces were believed to be training with gliders attached to aircraft, including Polish-made PZL light aircraft, to allow special forces personnel to infiltrate the South by flying at low altitudes under the radar.

“Hamas has interpreted and applied the concept of hybrid warfare, most recently witnessed in the war in Ukraine,” said Hong Hee-beom, executive editor of Platoon, a military magazine in Korea.

Hamas militants also used social media to sow fear, which the North may replicate by spreading fake information about their invasion.

“Without thorough intelligence preparation against North Korea, the South’s security system could easily collapse during hybrid warfare,” said Shin Jong-woo, a senior analyst at the Korea Defense and Security Forum.

The Foreign Ministry issued a travel advisory on Israel on Sunday, advising all Korean nationals in Israel, including tourists, to fly to a third country as soon as possible.

Korean Air was reported to be scheduling a flight from Israel to Korea on Tuesday. The airline’s flight from Incheon to Tel Aviv on Monday was canceled.

According to the ministry, around 570 Koreans reside in Israel — some 290 in Jerusalem, 210 in major cities including Tel Aviv and the other 70 in other cities.

No Koreans have been reported injured or killed in Israel as of Sunday.

The presidential office held an emergency security meeting Monday following the Hamas attack.

President Yoon Suk Yeol was scheduled to meet with leaders from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as early as this month.

The office said Monday that the summit meetings will not be affected by the recent attack on Israel.

“We don’t foresee any immediate effects on the summit schedule, but we are watching the situation closely,” a presidential official told the press on Monday.

The Yoon government signed 26 memorandums of understanding worth 40 trillion won ($29.5 billion) with Saudi Arabia last year and gained $30 billion in investments through a state visit to the United Arab Emirates in January.

Choi Sang-mok, senior presidential secretary for economic affairs, told the press Monday that the government was also closely monitoring the attack’s impact on financial markets.

BY LEE KEUN-PYUNG, ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]