Will the Seoul-Tokyo honeymoon last?

Kim Hyun-ki
The author is the Tokyo bureau chief and rotating correspondent of the JoongAng Ilbo.

Two gentlemen were dining on the evening of Aug. 23 at a private room of Esterre, a French restaurant on the sixth floor of Marunouchi Hotel in Tokyo, looking down over the Imperial Palace. One was former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, 86, and the other was current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The aged politician of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) told Kishida, “[Diet Affairs Committee chair Tsuyoshi] Takagi is doing well. And it’s difficult to tell who is better between [LDP Policy Research Council head] Koichi Hagiuda and [Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry] Yasutoshi Nishimura. Let’s give at least four seats in the Cabinet to our rivalling factions,” according to a confidante who attended the private meeting.

The cabinet reshuffle announced a few days later perfectly matched the advice from the veteran LDP politician. Kishida invited the powerful former prime minister to try to contain Hagiuda and four others, who are vying for the leadership of the LDP faction aligned to the late prime minister Shinzo Abe. The five all failed to present themselves as possible successors to the Abe faction ahead of the election to pick the new leader of the LDP in the fall of next year. Instead, Mori was highlighted as a figure with a strong say in the appointment and operation of the largest Abe faction commanding 100 members in the Diet. That way, Kishida effectively neutralized the mighty Abe faction in the LDP.

Kishida did the same with smaller rivalling factions in the LDP — the 55-membered No. 2 faction led by former Prime Minister Taro Aso and the 54-membered No. 3 faction led by Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi. As Aso is more interested in maintaining his grasp over his faction than producing a prime minister from his faction, Kishida allowed him to keep his post as the vice president of LDP and maintain four seats from his faction in the Cabinet.

In addition, to effectively contain the faction of Secretary General Motegi — who is rising fast as a strong candidate for the post-Kishida leadership — Kishida seated his rival Yuko Obuchi as the new election campaign chief, the fourth most important position in the party. In a surprise move, Kishida has also replaced Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, No. 2 in his own faction. Kishida needed to show who is in charge.

Though he faces a modest approval rating of around 30 percent, Kishida eliminated potential rivals one by one. Veteran politicians who could challenge his leadership based on his waning popularity are also dropping out of the picture. Abe’s death was a decisive factor behind the transition. It could be Kishida’s luck.

Korea’s relationship with Japan during the Yoon Suk Yeol administration may be broken into two stages — the period from its launch in 2022 to 2024 and the following years in Yoon’s five-year presidency. The first stage delivered a dramatic turn in the bilateral ties thanks to Korea and Japan’s amicable relationship with the U.S. under President Joe Biden. But the second stage could be more challenging. Biden’s second win in the presidential election in November next year is unclear.

Biden’s former rival, ex-president Donald Trump, is re-ascending fast. Depending on the results of Korea’s parliamentary election in April next year, the Seoul-Tokyo relationship also could lose the favorable momentum. If his partners in the United States and Japan change, Seoul’s relations with Washington and Tokyo also can change. Yoon could collide with Trump as both have stubborn personalities.

Motegi, the No. 1 candidate to succeed Kishida, is particularly hawkish toward Korea. For Korea, a longer reign of Kishida may be best. The timing of disbanding the lower house holds the key. If Kishida goes too fast, he could face a backfire. But if he stalls, Motegi could rise again. Kishida might have succeeded in removing his political rivals, but he has yet to win over the public. According to an internal party survey, LDP is expected to win just 220 seats — 41 less than the current 261 and short of the 233 majority — if the parliamentary elections are held now.

What is interesting is that Kishida’s decision to choose a snap election to dissolve the Lower Diet could be swayed by two factors related to the Korean Peninsula. One is the Unification Church based in South Korea, which could lose its religious status in Japan on charges of dubious methods of soliciting donations. LDP’s chances in the election could receive a blow if the church officials expose further scandals with LDP figures.

The other factor is North Korea. The election timing and outcome could depend on the results of a possible deal-making between Pyongyang and Tokyo whose officials are said to have been in contact in Southeast Asia. Seoul-Tokyo ties still remain closely interlocked and may complicate further in the future. South Korea must hasten to elevate the bilateral relations to encompass security alliance to jointly address challenges related to North Korea and the Middle East to ensure a lasting partnership regardless of changes in the helm.