Building the power to defend yourself is key

Choi Yoon-hee
The author, Ret. Admiral and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is the president of R.O.K. Seapower League and a chair professor at Jungwon University.

The Camp David summit in August had a historic accomplishment. The basis for security cooperation among the three countries was upgraded to a quasi-alliance, and practical action guidelines were prepared. It made it possible to share information in preparation for North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats as well as conduct response drills. The training areas were expanded to include cyber space beyond the ground, sea, and air. The training period is now a multiyear plan of three to five years to enhance efficiency. In short, it created a lasting guideline on the vision of security cooperation and implementation.

Like everything in the world, light and shadow coexist in the Camp David talks. At first glance, the meeting seems to be a preparation for the North’s nuclear and missile threats the three countries jointly face. But in fact, it is largely in preparation for China’s expansionist policy. The strengthened cooperation system among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan will further unite North Korea, China and Russia and have a profound impact on us. At the center of it is the Taiwan crisis, which can explode at any time. We need to analyze the impact of the Taiwan crisis in depth and prepare accordingly.

In August, I participated in a discussion organized by Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank. It was a place to discuss responses in case of China’s invasion of Taiwan. Most notable was the claim by American think tank Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security that when China invades Taiwan, China will form another front on the Korean Peninsula simultaneously. It is a Chinese strategy to disperse the strength of the U.S., a possible argument considering the case of the Korean War in the past. Markus Garlauskas, a researcher at the Scowcroft Center, insisted that he could not think of a separate conflict situation. Robert Abrams, former commander of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, had also said that if a conflict arises in Korea, China’s intervention is just a matter of time.

Recently, along with the Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war broke out, resulting in two simultaneous wars the U.S. wanted to avoid. To make matters worse, if two more wars break out in Taiwan and on the Korean Peninsula in the aftermath of the Camp David meeting, it could lead to four wars at the same time. It is the worst for America — and fatal for South Korea. In that case, the U.S. cannot afford to help the South. The war on the peninsula has to be stopped at any cost.

If North Korea makes a provocation, the stage will likely be the sea. As always, provocations of a certain degree at sea are likely to put the U.S. and South Korea in trouble, as an all-out war on the peninsula could serve as an opportunity to topple the North Korean regime. We should be mindful of the meaning behind Kim Jong-un emphasizing the need to strengthen naval capabilities. Developing a nuclear-powered submarine in cooperation with Russia will mark a new phase in the maritime security environment in the region. It is possible to make provocations anywhere outside the Korean Peninsula. North Korea will have unlimited options, including strategic strikes using submarine-launched ballistic missiles as well as torpedo attacks on trade routes.

South Korea needs to stabilize the situation and come up with plans to contain North Korea’s provocations as soon as possible. The South especially needs to secure response capabilities against the North’s nuclear-propelled subs. As North Korea does not have any restriction on securing and enriching nuclear fuel, it will likely secure nuclear-powered subs soon. But South Korea has a long way to go due to many restrictions. South Korea should find a solution through the Camp David spirit. We must also prepare for a limited nuclear attack. While using the alliance capability for containment, South Korea must build an independent response capability. The recent international situation shows a harsh reality that Korea cannot rely entirely on American strength.

During the discussion, I was surprised to hear that Taiwan does not have a plan to unite the nation’s will to fight back. Ninety-eight percent of Taiwanese are Han Chinese, just like the mainland. The young generation asks why the same people have to fight each other. How about young South Koreans? Our military forces were not even allowed to regard North Korea as the main enemy for a while. Coercive education cannot convince the young people. A new education method to understand the urgent security situation and inspire true patriotism is desperately needed.

I visited Taiwan’s Naval Operations Command and checked its military preparedness. Contrary to the will to fight off China’s invasion and win, it seemed to lack substantial response capability. Despite the need to conduct joint drills with the U.S. Navy, Taiwan’s Navy did not have any training records or plans. While witnessing the bleak reality of a country without capabilities to fight and win on its own despite economic prosperity, I felt the importance of an independent defense capability. Without the will and power to defend oneself, even an ally cannot be of much help.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.