Brace for Trump’s possible re-election
Wie Sung-rak
The author is a former South Korean representative to the six-party talks and head of the diplomacy and security division of the JoongAng Ilbo’s Reset Korea campaign.
Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. president next November is not a remote possibility. His approval rating is a bit higher than Joe Biden’s across the country — even in swing states. Of course, Trump faces judicial risks, and there are concerns about his extraordinary personality. Biden also has weaknesses such as a health issues and inflation. To sum it up, Trump has at least a 50 percent chance of winning the next presidential election.
As president, Trump often pushed forward radical policies. With his ego burning with rage and revenge on opponents, he is determined to do whatever he wants, if re-elected. His key aides believe that Trump’s drastic initiatives were frustrated by the deep state many times. The obstructionists include his former White House chief of staff John Kelly, secretary of state Rex Tillerson, secretary of defense James Mattis and national security advisor John Bolton. Trumps’ aides are busy devising effective ways to thwart their intervention during Trump’s second term. If he re-enters the White House, he will push even more extreme policies by not recruiting any potential opponents.
The time has come to assess the impact of Trump’s re-election on our diplomacy in advance, as President Yoon Suk Yeol may have to deal with the egocentric U.S. president during the second half of his term.
First, the level of the Korea-U.S. alliance will change due to the apparent consolidation of Trump’s “America First” nationalism and the exacerbation of his disrespect for the decades-long alliance. That will certainly prompt more disputes over their joint military drills, the deployment of U.S. strategic assets and defense cost-sharing than before. Above all, you can’t rule out the possibility of Trump threatening to withdraw U.S. forces from Korea, or at least downsizing them.
So far, the Yoon Suk Yeol administration has focused on augmenting the alliance as the backbone of its foreign policy, strengthening the extended deterrence and enhancing security cooperation with the United States and Japan as well as NATO. If the Trump administration redefines the alliance and changes the tone of the bilateral coordination, the Yoon administration will likely be forced to readjust the philosophy and stance of its foreign policy to maintain the 70-year alliance.
The Yoon administration must also brace for the possibility of the trust in the extended deterrence being undermined if Trump is re-elected president in 2024. Koreans will increasingly doubt whether Trump would really unfold his nuclear umbrella to rescue its ally at a cost of a nuclear attack on the U.S. mainland. If Trump makes a negative comment about the extended deterrence, it will make futile all the negotiations between the two allies to bolster the deterrence. It could trigger a stronger call to develop nuclear weapons on our own than before. In that case, nuclear armament could emerge as a major issue in Korea’s next presidential election in 2027.
Second, U.S.-North Korea relations will change, too. While watching closely all the fluctuations before the U.S. election, North Korea will certainly hope for Trump’s victory. If he is re-elected, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will surely send a letter to congratulate his re-election. Trump would gladly reply to Kim’s letter given their touted exchange of “love letters” in the past. Trump still boasts that a standoff over North Korean nuclear weapons could be averted if he had been re-elected president three years ago. The two countries will resume their contacts for another possible summit. But North Korea will most likely shun dialogue with South Korea.
If the United States and North Korea resume dialogue after the alliance is weakened and inter-Korean talks stop, it will pose a serious security challenge to South Korea. The worst-case scenario is if South Korea is excluded from negotiations on Korean Peninsula issues. We cannot take for granted a strange situation where Trump discusses those issues with North Korea on our behalf.
Third, if Trump is re-elected, an apparent deterioration in Sino-U.S. relations will deal a critical blow to our economy. As Biden’s restrained “Small Yard, High Fence” doctrine will surely recede, the battlegrounds will expand to the point of “decoupling” with China beyond “de-risking.” While giving less values to the alliance, Trump will increase pressure on Korea to help keep China in check. As a result, the room for Korea’s maneuverability over the chips and secondary batteries — hard-won through multiple negotiations with the Biden administration — is expected to shrink along with the massive impact of Trump’s trade protectionism on the Korean economy.
The Yoon administration must thoroughly prepare for far-reaching repercussions of Trump’s re-election. In particular, the government must devise policies to manage the alliance and deal with North Korea and China. The government must prevent the alliance from being weakened below a certain level and avoid making an extreme policy decision if public suspicion over the extended deterrence deepens. Above all, Korea must not be excluded from negotiations on Korean Peninsula issues. At the same time, it must not suffer too much damage amid ratcheted-up U.S.-China rivalry. The clock is ticking.
Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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