Lucky zodiac year could bode well for Korea's birthrate. Or maybe not.

Social Affairs

Published: 11 Jan. 2024, 17:55 Updated: 12 Jan. 2024, 13:47

Lucky zodiac year could bode well for Korea's birthrate. Or maybe not.

The father of this year’s first newborn holds the baby at Gangnam CHA hospital in Gangnam District, southern Seoul, at midnight of this year’s very first day, Jan. 1. Although the baby was born in 2024, it is not a child of the Blue Dragon because the lunar year starts in February. [NEWS1]

Newborn counts climbed in Chinese zodiac years represented by more divine animals such as the Year of the Golden Pig in 2007 and the Year of the White Tiger in 2010.

The year 2024 — the Year of “Blue Dragon” — is also considered a lucky year to give birth. However, whether the year will witness a reversal of Korea’s plummeting newborn count remains to be seen.

The lunar year 2024 starts on Feb. 4 and ends on Feb. 2 in 2025. Only newborns delivered in that period are counted as children of the Blue Dragon, an imaginary sacred being.

Thus, babies born this January are not under the blessing of the Blue Dragon, strictly speaking.

According to Statistics Korea data released on Tuesday, birth rebounds have overlapped the luckiest years in the lunar calendar.

Some 497,000 babies were born in 2007, the Year of the Golden Pig, a 10 percent increase from the year before.

Before 2007, the birth count had decreased from 640,000 in 2000 to 452,000 in 2006.

As the Year of the Golden Pig comes around only once every 600 years, many Koreans believed that children born that year were destined to become rich.

After 2007, the newborn counts spiraled downward to 466,000 in 2008 and 445,000 in 2009.

A family takes a photo in front of the statue of golden pigs in Ulsan in Dec. 29 in 2006. [JOONGANG PHOTO]

Schools nationwide had to secure additional classrooms to accommodate the number of children born in 2007.

Competition to enroll at nearby schools also grew more intense.

Children born in 2007 will take the college entrance exam this year. Educational experts speculate they will face fiercer competition than students who came before and after them.

There have been other temporary rebounds in the birthrate.

In 2000, the year of the millennium, some 640,000 babies were born, up from 621,000 newborns born in 1999.

The year 2010, the Year of the White Tiger, also believed to be lucky, experienced a birth rebound. More than 470,000 babies were born in 2010, while only 445,000 babies came into the world the previous year.

The birth count in the Year of the Black Dragon, 2012, also surpassed the previous year's total.

People take photos in front of the Blue Dragon statue at Gwanghwamun Plaza in central Seoul on Jan.1. According to the lunar calendar, year 2024 is the year of Blue Dragon. [JOONGANG PHOTO]

Given this pattern, Koreans can expect a boost in the birth count this year.

However, demographers doubt lucky lunar years significantly impact the thinking of would-be parents.

“It is hard to believe that people plan to give birth in specific years that are believed to be lucky,” said Kim Hi-sam, a Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology professor.

“It seems that the number of newborn babies has been decreasing consistently. However, there were on-year blips between 2005 and 2015," Kim added.

Experts say rebounds are connected with economics.

“The rebound in 2007 can be explained by Korean couples who postponed their marriage [until they could afford to do so] after experiencing the 1997-1998 IMF financial crisis,” said Lee Sang-lim, a researcher from the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs.

“Indeed, in 2006, more babies were born than in the previous year, 2005,” Lee added.

The birth count rebounds in 2010 and 2012 could be attributed to the recovery from the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.

Baby cradles are empty in the newborn's nursery at public postpartum center in Seoul on Dec. 26 last year. [YONHAP]

Demographers remain skeptical about this year’s birth counts.

They say Korea’s newborn counts have plummeted with no rebounds since 2015. To make matters worse, monthly newborn counts are decreasing consistently, too.

According to the Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy, the total fertility rate — the average number of births a woman is expected to give during her reproductive years — hit 0.72 in Korea in 2023.

The committee predicts this year’s total fertility rate will be 0.6.

Yet, some committee members dream high.

“With the nearly three percent increase in 2023’s marriage cases compared to 2022, newborns could total around 252,000 this year,” said Hong Sok-chul, a standing member of the committee and economics professor at Seoul National University.

“For such a rebound to lead to a long-sustaining trend, the government should designate this year a critical year for improving policies related to birth and fertility and investing resources.”

BY KIM KI-HWAN, LEE SOO-JUNG [lee.soojung1@joongang.co.kr]