Building momentum for another 60 years

Yu Myung-hwan
The author is a former foreign minister.

North Korea has been stepping up its provocations since the start of the new year. This appears to be part of psychological warfare to increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula to intensify internal crackdowns and target the South’s April 10 parliamentary elections. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui recently visited Russia, where she is believed to have discussed enhanced military cooperation and a planned visit to the North by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The aftermath of the Ukraine war has highlighted the geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea’s strategy is to build a trilateral cooperation system with China and Russia to counter the security cooperation of the United States, South Korea and Japan. The North is taking advantage of the conflicting relations between the major powers to strengthen its position and accelerate its efforts to complete its nuclear and missile development while defying UN sanctions.

As a result, South Korea’s diplomatic and security capabilities will be challenged on many fronts this year. U.S. President Joe Biden has a number of pressing issues ahead of the November presidential election, including the Middle East issues and the war in Ukraine, making it difficult for him to focus his attention on North Korea. The war in Ukraine, where Russia has recently resumed its offensive, as well as the armed confrontation between Israel and Hamas, are making the U.S. position more difficult. In the Red Sea, attacks on cargo ships by Houthi rebels of Yemen have continued despite U.S. and British bombings, and tensions could increase further in the entire Middle East depending on Iran’s response.

South Korea alone cannot manage and deal with the geopolitical risks it faces. Cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, which share democracy and universal human values, is indispensable. Fortunately, the trilateral cooperation regime agreed to at Camp David among the leaders of Seoul, Tokyo and Washington will be a very useful tool in dealing with the geopolitical crisis on the Korean Peninsula. More than 10 ministerial-level meetings have already been held among the three countries. Japan’s role is also crucial in keeping U.S. attention focused on the Korean Peninsula.

In early December, the Peace Odyssey, organized by the Korea Peace Foundation, visited two U.S. military bases in Japan — Yokosuka Naval Base and Yokota Air Base. It was a great opportunity to understand the often-forgotten role of the rear bases of UN forces in Japan and their mission to defend South Korea. USS Ronald Reagan, the aircraft carrier stationed at Yokosuka, was a symbolic representation of the U.S. power. In order to prepare for the growing military threats from China in the South China Sea and a possible emergency in Taiwan, Japan last year abandoned the principle of limiting its defense spending to less than 1 percent of GDP and increased it to 2 percent.

The axis of the U.S. strategy for Northeast Asia is Japan. As the discord between Japan and South Korea is very uncomfortable for the United States, America has always exerted diplomatic pressures on Japan and South Korea so that the two neighbors could work together.

If America has to choose between South Korea and Japan, it would choose Japan without hesitation. The Camp David trilateral summit would not have happened if South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol had not made a bold decision to improve relations with Japan last March despite domestic political risks.

The three countries are operating a real-time information exchange system to track the missiles the North fired. Pyongyang has been raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula to new heights for a direct deal with the U.S. if Trump is re-elected president in November. The North will likely demand the lifting of U.S. and UN sanctions and the withdrawal or cut of U.S. troops from the South in exchange for a freeze on its nuclear programs.

From the U.S. perspective, any attempt to change the strategic topography of Northeast Asia would have to take into account Japan’s position. Shared perception of security threats in Northeast Asia and close cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo are effective in amplifying Seoul’s voice to Washington. It will be particularly effective if the South and Japan would call for U.S. attentions based on their shared views on North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.

Next year marks the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between South Korea and Japan. On this occasion, a bold political decision is needed to set the course for the next 60 years of bilateral ties. Economically, South Korea and Japan should also take steps to secure a future-oriented bilateral relationship by signing a free trade agreement in order to further open up their markets and dramatically expand the exchanges of people and goods.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.