Politics-proof trilateral security cooperation key to combating North's threats
![From left, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at Camp David on August 19, 2023. [YONHAP]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2024/02/14/a28ff355-4054-48a7-8d70-4fa053020319.jpg)
From left, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at Camp David on August 19, 2023. [YONHAP]
The regime launched the missile no fewer than five times last year.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un emphasized that the pursuit of reunification with South Korea was a mistake during the ruling Workers’ Party session held between Dec. 26 and Dec. 30.
“We must respond quickly to a possible nuclear crisis and continue to accelerate preparations to pacify the entire territory of South Korea by mobilizing all physical means and forces, including nuclear force, in case of emergency,” North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency quoted Kim as saying.
North Korea's immediate threat
Kim's hard-line stance, which stands even above the North Korean constitution, poses a direct threat to South Korea. His rhetoric, including mention of pre-emptive nuclear attacks, is seen as a clear and alarming threat to regional stability.
There is growing concern that North Korea may attempt to use South Korea as a nuclear hostage in its threats against the United States and Japan, not to mention South Korea itself.
The inaction of China and Russia, which are critical members of the United Nations Security Council, exacerbates the situation by enabling North Korea's provocative behavior and accelerating its nuclear ambitions.
Furthermore, South Korea's national security and economy are at risk due to the instability of the global supply network.
The ongoing competition between the United States and China for advanced technologies, such as semiconductors, and economic sanctions imposed against Russia contribute to this instability.
Given these pressing concerns, South Korea requires a robust national security strategy and measures to safeguard its economy.
During a visit to the United Nations Command (UNC)-Rear headquarters in Japan between Dec. 5 and Dec. 6, an official from the UNC told the Korea Peace Foundation's Peace Odyssey delegation that North Korea's nuclear threat has transitioned from a distant future concern to an imminent one.
The Peace Odyssey delegation included incumbent and former diplomats, politicians and scholars led by the chairman of the foundation and JoongAng Holdings, Hong Seok-hyun.
The official stressed that addressing North Korea's threat is a shared challenge among South Korea, the United States, and Japan. Therefore, it is crucial to manage national security strategies resilient to changes in election results and political climates within each country.
The official added that the United States is actively strengthening its measures against North Korea's nuclear threat, which includes maintaining solid alliances with South Korea and Japan.
The official also suggested that expanding the scope of cooperation between South Korea and Japan would enhance the effectiveness of deterrence measures against North Korea, particularly in emergencies.
Amid the escalating threats from North Korea, including recent shelling near Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea, cooperation between South Korea and Japan has become increasingly vital.
This partnership, historically viewed as the weakest link in trilateral cooperation, is now more crucial than ever in addressing the growing security challenges posed by North Korea.
The trilateral relationship between South Korea, the United States and Japan is contingent on the outcomes of elections in each country — the general election in South Korea, the presidential election in the United States, and the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election in Japan.
Moreover, the relationship between North Korea, China and Russia appears to have strengthened in the past year and could potentially deepen further.
Under such circumstances, maintaining military and economic security won't be easy for South Korea this year.
On Dec. 20, the North Korean leader reportedly ordered preparations for a nuclear attack following the successful launch of the ICBM Hwasong-18. This development underscores the seriousness of North Korea's nuclear threats, which extend beyond mere rhetoric, especially amid concerns about the potential production of additional nuclear material this year.
Evidence of recent threats from Kim can be noticed in a photo depicting an operational map displayed during his field inspection at the North Korean Army's Strategic Force's command on Aug. 15, 2017.
The map clearly outlines the South Korean operation zone, the Japanese operation zone and the deployment of U.S. “invaders” in the Pacific region.
Highlighted on the map are Ulsan, Gimhae, and Gwangyang, which are areas where UN and U.S. forces are likely to deploy reinforcements in the event of war.
This suggests North Korea's strategic intent is to disrupt reinforcement deployments in the early stages of a conflict by launching a full-scale assault on these regions.
Security cooperation should remain steadfast regardless of changes in administration.
A UNC official highlighted the possibility of North Korea launching a nuclear attack on the Korean Peninsula in the early stages of a conflict to hinder the reinforcement of U.S. and UN forces. However, the official said that the United States possesses strategies capable of countering North Korean attacks and emphasized the commitment to engaging in joint operations with the South Korean alliance.
The official particularly emphasized the importance of rear bases in Japan, where U.S. and UN forces are stationed, in the event of immediate involvement in the conflict.
Some experts have proposed the establishment of security cooperation involving all three countries, spearheaded by South Korea, that goes beyond the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), the bilateral military treaty between South Korea and Japan focused on exchanging vital information.
"Recently, the United States has been establishing security cooperatives throughout the world," said Kwon Tae-hwan, chairman of the Korea Defense Diplomacy Association. "We could consider a security cooperative led by South Korea, with the participation of the United States and Japan, dubbed KORJAUS."
Kwon emphasized the importance of South Korea's central role in such cooperation, particularly given that the United States is preoccupied with multiple ongoing conflicts.
Japan possesses a more diverse array of information assets related to North Korea than South Korea. This includes eight Aegis destroyers, whereas South Korea has three and approximately 80 anti-submarine warfare or maritime patrol aircraft and military satellites.
By enhancing information exchanges between South Korea and Japan, the two countries could pursue a more comprehensive and three-dimensional response to North Korean threats.
Similarly, the United States advocates for closer trilateral cooperation among South Korea, Japan and itself.
"Information cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan regarding military movements in North Korea is crucial," said Han Min-koo, former defense minister. "While there was initial opposition when South Korea and Japan signed the GSOMIA, South Korea, with its limited information assets, stands to benefit from increasing means of collecting information."
Trilateral cooperation
President Yoon Suk Yeol, in the first cabinet meeting following his return from the trilateral meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at Camp David in August last year, stated that the three countries had agreed to solidify and institutionalize a cooperative system.
Yoon said the three countries would move forward as a regional cooperative body contributing to building freedom, peace and prosperity throughout the Indo-Pacific region.
His remarks hinted at a transformation into a global security guardian, expanding the scope of cooperation beyond the Korean Peninsula to encompass the entire Indo-Pacific region. This expanded cooperation includes not only responses to North Korea but also collaboration in military affairs, business, science and technology.
The strengthening of cooperation among the three countries is driven by growing concerns about the destabilization of the international security order due to conflicts such as those between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas, as well as tighter cooperation between North Korea, Russia and China.
Since his inauguration, President Yoon has held seven summits with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, which have improved bilateral relations and restored trust between the two leaders.
Trump’s reelection wildcard
However, potential obstacles could undermine the relationship between South Korea and Japan, posing risks to the trilateral cooperation system, particularly this year.
The primary concern is the possibility of former U.S. President Donald Trump's reelection in the presidential election in November.
Another risk stems from uncertainties surrounding Prime Minister Kishida's leadership in Japan.
Additionally, historical issues such as comfort women and forced labor during Japan's occupation of South Korea continue to strain relations between the two countries.
The most significant variable is Trump's potential reelection.
"Even if Trump is reelected, the fundamental foreign policy strategy of the United States will likely remain unchanged," said Wi Sung-rak, former South Korean Ambassador to Russia. “However, there is a possibility that the priority of trilateral cooperation could shift to align more closely with U.S. interests, potentially focusing primarily on containing China.”
In particular, if Trump adopts significantly protectionist industrial policies favoring U.S. interests in the supply chain, it could lead to conflicts among the three countries.
The space the United States has provided for South Korea and Japan, such as engaging in investment cooperation with China, could be stripped away.
Domestically, unresolved historical issues such as comfort women and forced labor continue to pose challenges.
While the current South Korean government is attempting to focus on future cooperation with Japan, the potential for past grievances to resurface remains.
In Japan, Prime Minister Kishida's leadership is being questioned amid a political fund-raising scandal involving his party.
"With the weakening influence of the [Shinzo] Abe faction within the Liberal Democratic Party, there is a risk of renewed South Korean bashing amid internal competition among party members," said Yang Ki-ho, a Japanese studies professor at Sungkonghoe University.
“Even Prime Minister Kishida, considered a moderate within the party, has not responded positively to South Korea's proposal for a solution to the forced labor compensation issue,” Yang said. “Therefore, it is unlikely that any new prime minister, regardless of who it may be, would adopt a more forward-looking approach to addressing past issues between the two countries.”
Importance of public opinion
Park Hong-kyu of Korea University has suggested a safety mechanism to ensure the biding of the trilateral cooperation system under any circumstances.
"Just as Germany and France ended their centuries-old confrontation and united Europe with the Élysée Treaty, it is appropriate for South Korea and Japan to establish a treaty that goes beyond mere political declarations and bind them, preventing the reversal of the relationship between the two countries in response to changes in administration and policy,” he said.
Since the signing of the Élysée Treaty in 1963, Germany and France resolved their conflict through student exchanges and ministerial-level meetings.
Some scholars from South Korea and Japan have proposed that in 2025, the leaders of both countries announce a second joint declaration to commemorate the 60th anniversary of normalizing diplomatic relations, similar to the 1998 joint declaration between President Kim Dae-jung and Prime Minister Obuchi Keizo.
During his presidential campaign, President Yoon pledged to propose a blueprint for an upgraded version of the 2018 joint declaration.
Former South Korean Ambassador to Russia Wi emphasized the importance of the Japanese government's listening to South Korean public opinion and taking proactive steps to improve the relationship.
"Our government has achieved a breakthrough in relations with Japan thanks to decisive determination," Wi said. "To sustain this momentum, both governments must approach strategically and work toward shaping public opinion accordingly."
BY LEE HO-JEONG [lee.hojeong@joongang.co.kr]
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
To write comments, please log in to one of the accounts.
Standards Board Policy (0/250자)