Four battleground 'belts' likely to dictate victory or defeat on Wednesday

General election 2024

Published: 08 Apr. 2024, 18:09

Four battleground 'belts' likely to dictate victory or defeat on Wednesday

From left: People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon rallies supporters for the party's candidate at a marketplace in South Chungcheong on Sunday. Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung speaks during a campaign near Yangjae Station in Seocho District, southern Seoul, on Sunday. [YONHAP/NEWS1]

Fifty swing districts nationwide are emerging as pivotal battlegrounds for rival parties as the voters’ choices in those contested areas will likely tip the scales of the April 10 general election.

The race is most heated in four regional "belts" — the Han River belt in Seoul consisting of 11 electoral districts, the Semiconductor belt in the southern Gyeonggi region of 16 districts, the Nakdong River belt in Busan and South Gyeongsang of 10 districts and the Central belt in the Chungcheong region of 13 districts.

“Most voters in these four belts lean to neither side of the political aisle, with a significant presence of centrists or independent voters,” said Cho Jin-man, a politics professor at Duksung Women’s University.

“Whoever wins in those districts will likely emerge as the ultimate winner of the general election.”

The Han River belt consists of 11 electoral districts lining the river that runs through the heart of Seoul: Mapo-A and B, Yongsan, Jung-Seongdong-A and B, Gwangjin-A and B, Dongjak-A and B, and Yeongdeungpo-A and B.

While voters in the far northern region of the Han River tend to lean towards the liberal Democratic Party (DP) and the southern region to the conservative People Power Party (PPP), neither major party has had dominant control over the Han River belt districts. Therefore, the region's winner has often gotten the last laugh in previous elections.

The battle so far seems to be neck and neck.

The margin of approval rates between two candidates from DP and PPP stood at less than 5 percentage points in six out of the 11 districts of the Han River belt, according to polls registered to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission through the first week of April.

The DP candidates had an overall head start in most of the districts, but the PPP has been catching up lately.

"The race has grown closer recently, but non-affiliated voters who would sway the outcome remain largely unhappy about inflation and the ongoing medical reform,” said Lee Jun-ho, CEO of STI, a polling agency.

"The trend from the previous general election may continue into the upcoming one with the DP claiming yet another sweeping victory,” Lee added.

The Semiconductor belt, located in the southern Gyeonggi region, is home to the production facilities of Korea's largest chip makers, such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

It encompasses 16 of Gyeonggi's 60 electoral districts, including five parliamentary seats representing Suwon, four representing Yongin and three representing Pyeongtaek.

The voter demographic of the region is characterized by a strong presence of younger generations and middle-income households.

The DP had a clear upper hand in the early stage of the campaign in the area, but recent scandals involving DP candidates seem to have rattled the race.

DP candidate Kim Jun-hyuck, who is running for the Suwon-D District, accused the founder of Ewha Womans University of forcing students to provide sexual favors to U.S. military officers during the 1940s during a YouTube appearance in 2022.

Another DP candidate, Gong Young-woon of Hwaseong-B District, faced allegations of gifting his child real estate property for improper financial gain. Gong has denied any illegal conduct.

“How the younger generation and female voters would react to the recent scandals [of Kim and Gong] will be the key,” Lee Jae-mook, a political science professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said.

The Nakdong River belt, which includes 10 electoral districts in Busan and neighboring South Gyeongsang, remains a pivotal region. During the previous general election in 2020, when there were nine electoral districts instead of the current 10, the DP won in five districts while the PPP claimed four.

Busan is also where President Yoon Suk Yeol cast his vote on Saturday during the early voting period. The DP spokesperson, in response, slammed the president, calling him to “stay out of the general election.”

Chang Woo-young, a politics professor at the Catholic University of Daegu, forecast that "the approval rate for PPP candidates [in the Nakdong River belt] will jump by over 3 percentage points by the end of the election campaign when the conservative voters begin to rally,” but also said that "the DP's popularity has certainly grown compared to four years ago.”

Chungcheong has long been a swing region as well. Out of 28 parliamentary seats representing the province, the competition is particularly intense in 13.

Though the DP won 12 of those 13 seats in 2020, the result was more varied in 2016, with the DP claiming 7 seats, the PPP 4 and an independent candidate securing one seat.

One possible factor that may sway the votes is the Yoon administration’s recent budget cut in research and development (R&D), as the city of Daejeon in the region is considered Korea's R&D hub.

“Both parties will need to maintain their focus on Chungcheong voters, and the region has a reputation for keeping the outcome unpredictable until Election Day,” said Lee Joon-han, a politics professor at the Incheon National University.

BY KIM HYO-SEONG, JEONG YONG-HWAN AND SHIN HA-NEE [shin.hanee@joongang.co.kr]