A barren political demography for conservatives

Chang Duk-jin
The author is a professor of sociology at Seoul National University.

One takeaway from the April 10 parliamentary elections is a transformation in political demography. Population change comes from three factors — births, deaths and migration. A shift in population triggers political consequences. Korea is under the influence of political demography, as reflected in the vote count difference between two regional archrivals, Yeongnam and Honam, which stems from their population gaps, and the contest between the democracy movement generation, and the conservative front oriented towards pro-growth and security.

The gulf between the conservative elder generation who experienced war and poverty and the generation of student activists in the 1980s who contributed to the country’s transition to democracy by fighting military regimes was less noticeable when both sides of the political aisle maintained some balance in the power equilibrium. But that balance started collapsing in the April election, and the imbalance is set to increase. This bleak outlook should scare conservatives. The breakdown in the balance of power comes largely from the ailments or deaths of the security-sensitive conservative base. People who were 10-years-old during the 1950-1953 Korean War are now in their mid-80s. Those who were 10-years-old during the 1970s when the country was struggling out of extreme poverty are now nearing 70. The vanguards of conservative values are exiting the scene, while the democracy movement generation, which forms the backbone of the liberal legacy, are at their prime of their life.

The proportion of supporters for the opposition Democratic Party (DP) and former Justice Minister Cho Kuk’s Rebuilding Korea Party supports this theory. It is commonly believed that the young are liberal-minded while the old are conservative-oriented. That bias made sense until the 2012 presidential election. In that election, Park Geun-hye swept the votes from the elderly and Moon Jae-in from the younger. But during the liberal Moon administration, the gender divide deepened. Women grew out of their conservative bias in voting. In reaction, men in their 20s and 30s increasingly became conservative, faster than before.

The yearning for liberal politics from young female voters still remains robust, although at a lesser intensity than during the early stage of Moon’s presidency. According to a vast library of literature based on case studies in many countries, female voters do not convert once they become liberals. This is more bad news for conservative politics.

Voters have aged since the last old vs. young contest in the presidential election 12 years ago. Many of the pro-security conservatives who voted for Park may cease to exist, and half of those from the democracy movement period in the 1980s are in their 60s now. Among supporters of the DP and Cho Kuk’s party, voters in their 40s and 50s are no surprise. But those in their 60s have now become their new voting base, and are likely to keep their political bias as they get older.

Some could say that those who were liberal while they were young can become conservative when they age. Political propensities and behaviors come under two primary influences — cohort effect and age affect. The former refers to the sentiment, experience and passion of youth shared by the same age group that can last for life. The latter is the effect of becoming conservative as one ages. Whichever force is stronger determines one’s political propensity.

According to empirical studies, the age effect is stronger than the cohort effect for those born in the early 1960s. The age group in general becomes more conservative as they age. However, the cohort effect is more powerful for those who were born after the mid-1960s. In other words, the democracy movement memories from their youth stays for life.

The easiest way to win is to increase the number on your side. Even at the peak of the controversy over its nomination process, the DP maintained an approval rating of 30 percent. Since a 51 percent approval rating guarantees a sure win, the liberal party only had to work for an extra 21 percent. On the other hand, the conservative People Power Party (PPP) will have to start from nearly zero to win 51 percent.

The landslide defeat of the conservative party in the latest election was just the prelude to the fallout from the imbalance in political demography. To those who cannot understand how candidates got elected despite their obnoxious remarks and judiciary risks, I relay the words of Eric Kaufmann, an influential scholar on political demography, who bid farewell to the “age of reason” to welcome the “world of chaos.”

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.