Time is not on the PPP’s side

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Time is not on the PPP’s side

Published: 01 May. 2024, 19:54

Chae Byung-gun
The author is the chief editor of contents production at the JoongAng Ilbo.

The future of the governing People Power Party (PPP) will most likely be bleak. The outcome of the April 10 parliamentary elections shows this. Although the PPP barely managed to win more than 100 seats — the threshold to block a constitutional amendment — it will face doom unless it changes. Korea faces the structural crisis of a declining birthrate, aging population and rural areas disappearing from the map — all fatal developments for the conservative party. The last general election, besides being a crushing defeat of the PPP, could offer a turning point for the demise of conservatism in Korea.

Let us consider the future of the PPP based on the low birthrate and fast aging population. According to a joint exit poll conducted on election day, the conservative party relied heavily on the loyalty of voters over 60. Some 62.9 percent of voters in their 60s said they’d voted for the PPP while 34.1 percent said they’d voted for the opposition Democratic Party (DP). Among voters in their 70s or older, 72.7 percent voted for the PPP while 25.3 percent voted for the DP. In contrast, a majority of people in their 20s to 50s supported the DP.

A decade later, the situation will be even worse for the PPP. In the legislative election, 31.9 percent of the eligible voters were older than 60, but after ten years, their share will drop to 23.3 percent. On the other hand, voters in their 40s and 50s — the DP’s key support base — will maintain a similar presence among voters, as they will slightly decrease from the current 37.4 percent to 35.3 percent.

People don’t change with age. As “progressive” middle-aged people become “progressive” older adults over time, the voter landscape will be more favorable to the DP in 10 years than it is now. In addition, if the phenomenon of the voters in their 20s and 30s sympathizing with those in their 40s and 50s continues as it did in the last election, it is unclear whether the PPP can actually survive.

Depopulation is another crisis for the PPP. According to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, 89 cities, counties and districts are undergoing a population decline. Twenty-seven out of 90 PPP winners scored victories in those areas — but only 16 of the the 161 DP lawmakers-elect with constituencies are from such regions. This is not surprising. Depopulation is concentrated in rural areas, and the DP swept the capital region. The depopulation crisis is mainly the PPP’s problem.

The only way for the PPP to survive is to expand its support base. It must survive in the capital area and appeal to voters in their 20s and 30s. Regional and generational expansion is its only path forward.

To this end, the PPP must first reflect on its habitual capitalization on anti-North Korea sentiment. For youngsters, North Korea is just an uninteresting rouge state. They are looking for solutions to unemployment, high prices and cost of living. They must be convinced that their dreams will come true. North Korea policy is a basic component of a conservative party, but it’s not a magic wand. The PPP must find a Korean version of the “audacity of hope” to attract the young. But it does not pay attention to such things.

Expanding awareness is also paramount. The PPP is collectively trapped by idola specus, or idols of the cave. Because similar people gather to talk about similar things — and make similar arguments — they don’t know how other people think or how the world works. A defeated PPP candidate who ran in the capital region said he had visited restaurants to meet voters during every evening of his campaign, but it didn’t work. He said the restaurants had no guests and only owners were there. In this situation, the PPP’s expectation for its strategy of attacking DP leader Lee Jae-myung and former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, now the head of the Rebuilding Korea Party, to work was like hoping to win the lottery.

Political parties are important because they translate the values and choices of their supporters into laws and institutions. In the longer term, they create leaders and visions for a country. But in a reclusive party, leaders capable of expansion cannot grow.

Time is now on the DP’s side, not the PPP’s. And yet, the PPP doesn’t seem desperate. It must worry about the future of the conservative movement. But the people and supporters are worried about the conservative party. The order is reversed.