Time for smart management of population contraction

Yang Sung-hee
The author is a columnist of the JoongAng Ilbo.

In “Death as Told by a Sapiens to a Neanderthal,” where a Spanish award-winning novelist and paleontologist discuss topics related to death, longevity, aging and survival, the human aging process is neither a natural design nor one that should be dreaded. Aging is like overtime in the human lifespan, which would have ended before getting old from the harsh environment, predators or injuries. Life beyond the age of 40 is a “gift” which would have otherwise ended.

Using DNA methylation clocks, scientists in 2020 estimated the “natural” lifespan of homo sapience to be 38 years. But that lifespan has stretched to become two times longer than the “natural” length over the past 200 years due to advancements in medicine and lifestyle. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2022 found the life expectancy of its wealthier member countries to average 80.5 years. Korea’s was 83.5 years. Although scientists cannot fully agree on the limits of human life, the maximum is estimated at around 150 years.

Korea will surely become a “super-aged” society in 2026. By the end of 2023, the cohort aged 70 or older already outnumbered those in their 20s for the first time. Those aged 65 or older were tallied at 9.73 million, nearing the 10-million milestone, or one-fifth of the entire population. Eight out of 17 metropolitan cities and provinces have already become super-aged. Voters aged 60 or older already outnumber those in their 20s and 30s ahead of the upcoming April 10 parliamentary elections.

Korea’s fast aging is coupled with the world’s lowest birthrate. The ultra-low birthrate deals a critical blow to our economic and social vitality. The New York Times wrote that Korea could disappear from the map due to its depopulation exceeding what the Black Death delivered to Europe in the 14th century. Statistics Korea puts the total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime — at 0.7. Even if the number is hoisted up to 1 child per woman, the population of 50 million would shrink to 36 million in half a century, and half of the population would be 65 or older. At its current pace, it is difficult to sustain the current TFR at 0.7.

The government has rolled out various measures to encourage more births, but to no avail. Billions of dollars were squandered in the wrong places. The problem is too complicated to be solved through one or two sets of measures.

According to “Smaller Cities in a Shrinking World,” a book by urban policy expert Alan Mallach, once a population begins to decrease, it is difficult to recover its pre-depopulation levels. The author projected the birth policies in Europe and Japan would only help slow the pace of depopulation. France, whose birth policy has pushed up its birthrate to the highest among developed countries, at a rate of 1.8 still hovers below the replacement rate of 2.1, the threshold where a country can maintain its current population. The author advises that we accept the reality of population contraction and economic slowdown and seek a reasonable future path of smaller cities and countries through the smart management of population reduction.

Renowned evolutionary biologist Choe Jae-chun, chair professor at Ewha Womans University, recently said that our ultralow birthrate is a “natural consequence of evolutionary adaptation” because “animals in an environment where they cannot give birth and breed offspring cannot survive.” He said depopulation actually can benefit the planet. Still, Korea must not volunteer to be the first to disappear from the map.

Whether we like it or not, we face a gloomy future from the extreme dearth of births and overwhelming aging. Japan, with a population of 122 million and fertility rate of 1.26, is devising an entirely new strategy to sustain a population of at least 80 million. The country is aiming to plant confidence into young people that society will help raise their children and a society will be created that can accommodate aging. We also must put national focus on the issue. But our politicians have eyes entirely on the legislative election in the spring with little care for the lengthy, wintry season awaiting the country.