Population estimated to shrink 10% by 2052: Statistics Korea

Home > Business > Economy

Population estimated to shrink 10% by 2052: Statistics Korea

Published: 28 May. 2024, 15:47

SHIN HA-NEE
shin.hanee@joongang.co.kr

Children walk to school at an elementary school in Seoul on March 4 [NEWS1]

All of Korea's cities and provinces except for Sejong and Gyeonggi are expected to see a decline in population by 2052 compared to 2022, according to the latest estimation by the state statistics agency.

Seoul, in particular, may lose 15.8 percent of its population, or 1.49 million, over the next three decades.

According to the regional projections released by Statistics Korea on Tuesday, the country’s total population is expected to shrink by 10.5 percent, or 5.41 million, from 2022 to 51.67 million by 2052 per the median estimate. The conservative estimate forecasts a 2.5 percent decline to 50.38 million, while the extreme estimate predicts an 18.2 percent decrease to 42.25 million.

Out of 17 administrative regions in Korea, Seoul is expected to suffer the highest net decline, followed by Busan with 850,000, or 25.8 percent, and South Gyeongsang with 690,000, or 21 percent.

Daegu is estimated to see a 24.3 percent decline in population, North Gyeongsang 17.4 percent, North Jeolla 18.4 percent, Ulsan 25.7 percent, Gwangju 19.7 percent and Daejeon 15.1 percent.

Meanwhile, the population in Sejong is expected to grow by 41.1 percent to 540,000 during the cited period, and Gyeonggi by 0.9 percent to 13.81 million.

As of 2022, 11 regions including Seoul, Ulsan, Busan and Daegu were already experiencing population decline. Population growth in North Chungcheong, Gangwon, Incheon, Gyeonggi and South Chungcheong is expected to reverse course starting in 2035, and by 2039, every region except Sejong begin to experience a contraction.

The population is not only shrinking, but also aging.

The median age is expected to reach 58.8 years nationwide by 2052, compared to 44.9 in 2022. In nine regions, including South Jeolla, Gangwon, North and South Gyeongang, the median age will surpass 60 years. In Seoul, the median age will rise to 56.1 years, compared to 43.8 years in 2022.

Korea has been grappling with a chronically low birthrate. The total fertility rate — the average number of children expected to be born per woman over her lifetime — reached a record low of 0.72 in 2023, far below the 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain a stable population without immigration.

In February 2024, only 19,362 babies were born, the lowest number for any February since the statistics agency began collecting data in 1981. The March figure and quarterly data will be released on Wednesday.

BY SHIN HA-NEE [shin.hanee@joongang.co.kr]