South Korea worries Putin visit could tighten military bonds between North and Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un examine a launch pad during their meeting at the Vostochny cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky on Sept. 13, 2023. [AP/YONHAP]

South Korea believes Russia and North Korea will likely elevate their military cooperation to a level bordering on “automatic military intervention in the event of an emergency” when Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Pyongyang.

South Korean intelligence and security officials are said to have detected movements in this direction ahead of Putin’s expected visit on Tuesday.

“Cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang could become as close as it was in 1961,” a South Korean intelligence official said.

This means if North Korea goes to war, the Russia military could immediately intervene.

In 1961, North Korea and the Soviet Union signed a treaty that included a provision calling on both parties to render immediate military support to one another in the event of a war. Russia abolished the treaty in 1996 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The North Korea-Russia treaty signed in 2000 does not include a similar provision for automatic military intervention.

The South Korean government plans to monitor President Putin’s visit to North Korea and consider responses.

In particular, it was confirmed that Seoul delivered a warning to Moscow ahead of Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, asking Russia not to cross any lines that South Korea cannot tolerate.

National Security Office Director Chang Ho-jin told Yonhap News TV on Sunday that “we have communicated a warning to Russia not to cross certain lines.”

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul also said a “warning message” was delivered to Russia during an interview with Channel A on Sunday.

“We made it clear that discussions between North Korea and Russia should not be conducted in a way that undermines peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,” said Cho. “It remains to be seen what specific agreement will be reached between Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a result of this visit, but we will take necessary countermeasures depending on the results.”

Cho said that North Korea and Russia have grown more closely attached out of necessity following the war in Ukraine and that Putin’s visit is taking place in this context.

However, he added that it remains to be seen “whether North Korea-Russia cooperation leads to a long-term strategic partnership or remains a temporary relationship out of necessity.”

Meanwhile, as North Korean and Russian leaders gear up to meet in Pyongyang, a high-level meeting between South Korea and China will be held at the same time this week.

The South Korea-China diplomatic and security dialogue, to be held in Seoul on Tuesday, follows the South Korea-China-Japan summit last month, at which President Yoon Suk Yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang agreed to hold the first round of such talks in June.

First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Hong-gyun from South Korea and Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Sun Weidong from China will meet for the dialogue, as well as director-level officials from both countries’ defense ministries.

Convening this high-level meeting between South Korea and China simultaneously as the North Korea-Russia summit in Pyongyang could undermine the warming relationship between Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow under the so-called new Cold War structure.

Notably, China is proceeding with the dialogue with South Korea instead of adjusting the potentially burdensome schedule.

Officials and experts worry that North Korea may try to drive wedges in South Korea's relations with China and Russia to consolidate the new Cold War structure.

“Pyongyang sees the structure of North Korea-China-Russia versus South Korea-the United States-Japan as advantageous in terms of its survival and is desperately trying to strengthen it,” said Park Ihn-hwi, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.

BY LIM JEONG-WON,PARK HYUN-JOO [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]