South Korea should consider independent nuclear deterrent in wake of North-Russia treaty: Think tank

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South Korea should consider independent nuclear deterrent in wake of North-Russia treaty: Think tank

Published: 24 Jun. 2024, 15:12

LIM JEONG-WON
lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un smile as they take a walk together after a summit in Pyongyang on Wednesday. [AP/YONHAP]

South Korea should consider diversifying its options for dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue, including arming itself with nuclear weapons, suggested a Seoul-based state-run national security think tank in the wake of the recently signed comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between Pyongyang and Moscow.

The Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) made the suggestion in a strategy report published Sunday amid growing concerns that U.S. extended deterrence will not be enough to handle North Korea’s evolving nuclear threats, especially after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a mutual defense provision in their recently signed treaty.

“During Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, Russia indirectly recognized North Korea’s nuclear armament by blatantly ignoring the UN Security Council’s sanctions against North Korea,’ the INSS report said. “There are concerns that North Korea's status as a nuclear state will more likely become a fait accompli as time passes.

“North Korea is expected to strengthen its efforts to secure recognition of its status as a nuclear state by other major countries, such as China, following Russia,” the report added.

The strategy report expressed concern that even if U.S.-North Korea negotiations resume after the U.S. presidential election in November, there is a possibility that the United States may seek a freeze on North Korea’s nuclear program or nuclear disarmament talks rather than a complete denuclearization.

“While continuing to strengthen South Korea-U.S. extended deterrence, a government level-review and strategic review of various alternatives, including deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, NATO-style nuclear sharing, nuclear self-armament and the establishment of potential nuclear capabilities need to take place, as does public debate over these options,” the INSS report argued.

The INSS report suggested that nullifying the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty signed between North Korea and Russia should be induced in the mid-to-long term.

“If the war in Ukraine ends in the near future and North Korea’s strategic value is reduced, or if South Korea-Russia relations become more important to Russia, the treaty could be annulled,” the report said. “It is important to ensure that the treaty's contents are not actually implemented for the time being.”

The INSS report also emphasized that it is ever more important for South Korea to engage in global issues to consolidate international support against the North Korea-Russia camp. This includes seeking advancements in the South Korea-U.S. alliance and the South Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance and active participation in the Aukus Pillar II.

Aukus is a military alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, launched in September 2021 to keep China in check in the Indo-Pacific region. It consists of two key pillars: Pillar I, supporting Australia in acquiring conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines, and Pillar II, for cooperation in high-tech areas.

“In a situation where the interconnection between the Korean Peninsula issue and the global situation is deepening, it is desirable to continuously strengthen intervention in global issues to secure the upper hand in the Korean Peninsula situation,” the report said.

Noting that North Korea may also claim to be a global actor and attempt to approach the global South camp in the future, the report suggested that South Korea take a pre-emptive approach to gain a strategic advantage.

“A tour to leading countries in the global south on occasions in the latter half of this year, such as the APEC summit in Lima, Peru and the G20 summit in Rio, Brazil, should be considered,” the report said.

BY LIM JEONG-WON [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]