Sudden reshuffle of national security team baffles diplomats, experts

Politics

Sudden reshuffle of national security team baffles diplomats, experts

Published: 13 Aug. 2024, 18:17 Updated: 13 Aug. 2024, 18:18

LIM JEONG-WON
lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik, who was named the next national security adviser on Monday, left, and Presidential Security Service (PSS) chief Kim Yong-hyun, who was named the next Defense Minister, right. [YONHAP/NEWS1]

Monday's surprise reshuffle of the president's foreign policy and security team, including the appointment of incumbent national security adviser Chang Ho-jin to the newly created post of special adviser to the president for foreign affairs and national security, has observers asking one thing — why?

In particular, some analysts say the appointment of Shin Won-sik, a leading North Korea hardliner and current defense minister, as the new national security adviser ahead of Yoon’s announcement of a new unification policy on Liberation Day on Aug. 15 suggests a lack of careful consideration of the shakeup's external implications.

On Monday, the presidential office announced the new reshuffle, with Shin and Chang given new positions, and Presidential Security Service (PSS) chief Kim Yong-hyun named the new defense minister to replace Shin.

The replacement of Chang as the national security adviser has been met with surprise from both inside and outside the administration.

Some speculate that Chang failed to respond appropriately to the recently signed comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between North Korea and Russia, an agreement that approaches a military alliance. Chang, who was the Yoon administration's first ambassador to Russia, may have placed too much emphasis on strategically managing relations with Russia for the administration's liking.

However, others argue that this would not have been enough to necessitate a shakeup.

“The South Korean government recognized the situation a month ago that cooperation between North Korea and Russia could go too far,” a diplomatic source told the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily. “It was because the administration prepared ahead based on this knowledge that they were able to respond immediately, such as announcing the reconsideration of lethal support to Ukraine immediately after the treaty was signed.”

At the same time, Shin, the new security adviser, could be blamed for the recent leak of confidential information about South Korean undercover agents overseas and the erosion of organizational discipline within the military.

Chang Ho-jin, current national security adviser who was named on Monday special adviser to the president for foreign affairs and national security, a newly created post, attends a cabinet meeting on July 2. [YONHAP]

The lack of clear reasons for replacing Chang or Shin has even fueled political speculation of internal strife.

Some are concerned that this is already the fourth appointment of a national security adviser since the Yoon administration took office just two years and three months ago. Considering that diplomacy involves counterparts, experts say replacing key positions too frequently can negatively affect the stability of policy implementation.

“Security policy shouldn’t just be hardline, but should be a combination of strong military power, competent diplomacy, flexible attitudes and intelligence capabilities,” said Ra Jong-yil, a professor of security and North Korean studies at Dongguk University who served as national security adviser under the liberal Roh Moo-hyun administration. “It’s a pity and a concern that the government has failed to explain why they should change the position again at this point, especially since the average tenure of previous advisers in the current administration was less than six months.”

The timing of the reshuffling amplifies concerns. The announcement was made just three days before the Yoon administration’s new unification discourse, which will be unveiled at the Liberation Day celebration on Aug. 15.

That Shin, who has publicly talked about “ending the Kim Jong-un regime,” was appointed as the new national security adviser could be seen as taking a hardline approach before sending a message of reconciliation to North Korea, leaving no room for dialogue with North Korea.

Since taking office as defense minister last October, Shin has emphasized retaliating against North Korean provocation "immediately, strongly and to the end." At the joint press conference of the South Korea-United States Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) in November last year, Shin said that “if North Korea provokes war, the Kim Jong-un regime will disappear, and we will gain reunification under the free, democratic basic order led by South Korea.”

In a media interview last month, Shin also said that “if North Korea provokes us with drones, we will also send drones to major areas in North Korea, take pictures and release them to the world,” adding that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "should try provoking us if he is confident that he can handle it.”

Of course, there are expectations that Shin will act and speak differently once he becomes a national security adviser, who must strategically coordinate North Korea policy. However, the symbolism of the appointment of hardliners such as Shin and newly named Defense Minister Kim Yong-kyun is significant.

The presidential office reportedly cites the stabilization of the South Korea-U.S. alliance as a reason for the most recent reshuffle.

Previous security advisers Kim Sung-han, Cho Tae-yong and Chang Ho-jin were praised for achieving significant results in dealing with the United States, including U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Seoul in May 2022, the first state visit by a Korean president to the United States in 12 years and the Washington Declaration in April 2023.

However, there are doubts about appointing a national security adviser with a military background when preparations are urgently needed for the U.S. presidential election in November.

As the race between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to grow more heated, the need for diplomatic networks and intelligence-gathering to reach out to both camps is more urgent than ever.

The return of Trump to the White House would inevitably impact the achievements of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, such as restraining North Korean expansion, and the U.S. military presence in Korea.

Accordingly, observers are asking whether the latest reshuffle sufficiently considered the move's diplomatic ramifications, including for the alliance with the United States.

"Depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, the foreign affairs and security line of the presidential office, including the national security adviser, may need to be replaced again, and it is difficult to understand why the appointment was made three months before the U.S. presidential elections," said a diplomatic source.

"It is, of course, possible to appoint a military figure as the national security adviser. But there should be rationality in the appointment, which is somewhat puzzling in this case."

BY LEE YOO-JUNG, PARK HYUN-JOO, LIM JEONG-WON [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]