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Get ready for leadership changes

Published: 15 Aug. 2024, 20:05

Japan along with South Korea’s top ally, the United States, is set to come under new leadership. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Wednesday announced he would not bid in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election in September. This means that Japan, where the ruling party chief co-heads as the cabinet Prime Minister, will soon be lead by a new leader. Kishida has been under pressure to resign from office due to dismal approval ratings related to a slush-fund scandal involving party bigwigs. U.S. President Joe Biden earlier bowed out of the presidential race and made way for his vice president to run as his substitute in the November election.

President Yoon Suk Yeol would be losing two of his closest partners on the international front. It has become imperative for Seoul to ready countermeasures against the leadership change in its key allies. The Washington Declaration after a summit meeting in the U.S. capital last year that expanded the deterrence dimension of the alliance response to North Korea’s nuclear threat and the joint statement at Camp David that penciled trilateral cooperation among Korea, the United States and Japan could fall into limbo. If Donald Trump gets elected, he could directly deal with North Korea based on his rapport with Kim Jong-un during his term. Seoul also may not be able to expect goodwill from Tokyo based on the trust built through back-to-back meetings between Yoon and Kishida in the near future under a new leader.

Yet Seoul cannot hastily make a move as it remains uncertain who will become the new leaders in the two governments. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican contestant Trump are embroiled in a head-to-head race with just 80 days left until election day. Multiple candidates are being floated as Kishida’s successor including 60-something veterans and younger faces like Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former prime minister.

The international geopolitical climate is getting more perilous by the day. Ukraine has invaded Kursk and seized a chunk of Russian territory, which is expected to invite a stronger offensive from Russia. Some even speculate Moscow’s use of tactical nuclear weapons. The tensions in the Middle East are escalating with tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran, causing volatility in oil prices and aggravating the test for Korean diplomacy.

Seoul still has some time as Biden’s term ends in January and Kishida will be in office for more than a month. The government must fully employ rapport with the Biden and Kishida administrations for minimum protection in agreements reached during their terms. The presidential office which has replaced security aides must quickly get the house in order to get all-hands on deck for the diplomatic front. It must first commit to draw internal unity amid controversies over the appointment of a new director of the Independence Hall of Korea and Seoul’s acceptance of Japan’s Sado mine related to wartime forced labor of Koreans as a Unesco World Heritage site. The government must prove its strength in the face of crisis through adroit and shrewd maneuvering in tumultuous times.