What will come of the troop dispatch?

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What will come of the troop dispatch?

Published: 21 Oct. 2024, 19:33

YOU SANG-CHUL
The author is the head of the China Institute of the JoongAng Ilbo and CEO of China Lab.

I found the news of North Korea sending troops to Russia shocking. The frontline of the war, which had seemed far away, feels right in front of us. Moreover, it provides a clue to some of the questions I have had since last year. Firstly, I had questions on why Russian president Putin agreed to restore the military alliance with North Korea, a relic of the Cold War, during his visit to North Korea in June 2023. He urgently needed shells, but I thought it was excessive to sign an agreement that allows automatic intervention in case of emergency.

Now, my curiosity has been somewhat resolved. Article 4 of the new North Korea-Russia treaty states that if one country is invaded, the other country will provide military aid. Until now, we have interpreted this as Russia coming to aid if North Korea is attacked. I didn’t think about the opposite case much, but it is happening. Russia now can claim that North Korea sent troops based on the new treaty because Ukraine has attacked the Russian soil of Kursk in August.

Second, I wondered how North-China relations could worsen so badly just because the North and Russia got closer. In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Donald Trump that the Korean Peninsula was historically a part of China. It seems that he claimed that Korea was under China’s sphere of influence. However, as the North sent a massive number of troops and built a blood alliance with Russia, China’s status was greatly shaken.

China seems to have been aware of North-Russia ties, including the North’s plan to dispatch troops. As a result, China is protesting in an unprecedented manner. Lastly, I had questions about the background of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s “two-state theory” and the remark of “no intention to attack South Korea” earlier this month. It means that the South should not touch the North as the North won’t hit the South.

Why did he say that? It seems to be a thinly-veiled tactic to fill the security vacuum while a massive amount of shells and tens of thousands of elite troops leave North Korea for the Russian front. Then what will happen in the future? Ukraine would need Korean language resources because of North Korean casualties, deserters and prisoners of war — and to understand the movements of the North Korean military on the front lines, the North Korean military situation is also a matter of South Korea’s interest.

As the North becomes deeply involved in the Ukraine war, the South’s involvement is likely to grow. We cannot but worry about where the war will spread. It is urgent to cooperate with all countries that don’t want an expansion of the war, including China, whose stance is clearly different from the North and Russia, as well as allies.