North likely preparing nuclear test: U.S. intelligence

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines speaks during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing to examine worldwide threats including North Korea in Washington, Wednesday. [AP/YONHAP]

The U.S. intelligence community warned that North Korea likely is preparing to test a nuclear device and further expanding its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program as the regime seeks international acceptance as a nuclear state.

U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Avril Haines said that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has no intention of giving up his nuclear program at a Senate hearing on Wednesday as she presented the findings of the recently released "Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community."

"Kim Jong-un continues to steadily expand and enhance Pyongyang's nuclear and conventional capabilities targeting the United States and its allies, periodically using aggressive, potentially destabilizing actions to reshape the regional security environment in his favor," said Haines, "and to reinforce its status quo as a de facto nuclear power."

Haines and the other top intelligence officials testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee on the threats posed by North Korea, China, Russia and Iran at the public worldwide threats hearing.

North Korea "probably is preparing to test a nuclear device to further its stated military modernization goals to facilitate 'tactical nuclear operations,'" according to the 2023 DNI report, which noted that Pyongyang codified a law reaffirming its self-proclaimed status as a nuclear power, rejecting denuclearization in September 2022.

Kim is also expected to order further missile tests, including cruise missiles, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) "to validate technical objectives, reinforce deterrence, and normalize Pyongyang's missile testing," according to the report.

North Korean leader Kim "almost certainly views nuclear weapons and ICBMs as the ultimate guarantor of his autocratic rule and has no intention of abandoning those programs, believing that over time he will gain international acceptance as a nuclear power," it added.

Kim will continue "efforts to enhance North Korea's nuclear and conventional capabilities targeting the United States and its allies, which will enable periodic aggressive actions to try to reshape the regional security environment in his favor," the report said.

His attempts to provide security for his regime could also be demonstrated by Pyongyang's "repeated public support for Beijing and Moscow's foreign policy priorities."

Last year, Kim reinforced this position through testing multiple ICBMs "intended to improve North Korea's ability to strike the United States" and by revising Pyongyang's nuclear law, the reported noted.

North Korea is using its nuclear-capable missile program in an attempt to "establish strategic dominance" over South Korean and U.S. forces in the region by pursuing missiles likely aimed at defeating missile defense systems on the peninsula, it added.

Since last September, North Korea has timed its military provocations to counter South Korea-U.S. combined exercises, and the report assessed that Pyongyang probably wants Seoul and Washington to "decrease the pace and scale of the exercises with the ultimate goal of undermining the strength of the alliance."

The North prioritizes efforts to "build an increasingly capable missile force designed to evade U.S. and regional missile defenses," and to support development of these new missile systems, it is reportedly importing a variety of dual-use items in violation of UN sanctions, primarily from China and Russia.

The intelligence community assessed that North Korea would expand its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities "while being a disruptive player on the regional and world stage."

The U.S. intelligence also remains "concerned" that Pyongyang could use its chemical and biological weapons capabilities "during a conflict or in an unconventional or clandestine attack."

It further warned that North Korea's cyber activities can pose "a sophisticated and agile espionage, cybercrime, and attack threat," noting that its cyber forces are "fully capable of achieving a range of strategic objectives against diverse targets."

Pyongyang could possess the ability to cause "temporary, limited disruptions of some critical infrastructure networks and disrupt business networks in the United States," the report added.

"North Korea continues to threaten South Korea, Japan and the United States with nuclear-capable ballistic missiles of increased range and lethality," Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) told the Senate hearing.

When asked about hotspots the United States is concerned about, he replied, "The agency is worried about North Korea, for sure, and their ballistic missile development timeline, as well as potential nuclear testing."

This comes amid assessments by South Korean intelligence authorities that the North may be preparing for a seventh nuclear test.

Kim Kyou-hyun, chief of the South's National Intelligence Service (NIS), said in a National Assembly hearing Tuesday that North Korea will likely conduct a large-scale exercise that combines nuclear and conventional weapons in March and April, coinciding with South Korean and the U.S. combined exercises.

He added that North Korea is also likely to launch a new solid-fuel ICBM.

BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]