The irony of nuclear armament

Kim Byung-yeon

The author is a professor of economics and head of the Institute of Future Strategy at Seoul National University.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could be regretting the pursuit of a nuclear weapons state — a vision of his grandfather and North Korea’s founder Kim Il Sung. But never the young leader could have imagined it could be this hard. Some attribute the North’s relentless pursuit of nuclear arms to its traumatic defeat by the United States in the Korean War. But the war was started by North Korea. Assuming that America would attack North Korea is itself a crazy imagination.

Yet Pyongyang is paying an astronomical price to develop nuclear missiles to fight a phantom in its mind. Some think North Korea is developing nukes to prevent foreign forces from advancing into the country if a revolt occurs there. If the recalcitrant state were smart, it should be trying to win support from the people by developing the economy instead of spending all the money on nuclear weapons. Sadly, the country does the opposite.

A flashback to the early 2016 and Kim could have make a different choice. At that time, he made three major miscalculations. First, he thought that U.S.-led sanctions would not work as they could not stop his country from making nuclear tests before. Second, he believed China would not go along with new U.S.-led sanctions. Third, he thought that North Korea’s state-controlled economy wouldn’t be that affected even if China joined the sanctions.

When his predictions went wrong, Kim would have panicked by the late 2017. He hurriedly sent a delegation to South Korea on the pretext of congratulating the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics. After directly talking with President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump, Kim’s ego got bigger, as he found his South Korean counterpart too soft and the American president a bit simpleton. When the summit with Trump in Hanoi went sour, Kim’s confidence would have shaken. He now would have to fear for his power due to deepening economic crisis.

North Korea’s fragile economy could not support its leader’s oversized ego. His ambitious nuclear programs wrecked the economy. The opportunity cost on the economy from the development of nuclear weapons and inter-continental missiles from 2017 to 2022 would have reached at least $17 billion, worth its annual GDP. When counting in all expenditures to test nuclear weapons and missiles, North Korea would have spent an astronomical cost on the program.

The latest Seoul-Washington summit disheartened Kim further. While North Korea is making a baby step with nuclear development, the South Korea-U.S. relationship is making big strides. The two leaders agreed to launch a Nuclear Consultative Group. No matter how much it invests, North Korea cannot match the U.S. in nuclear capabilities. It is suicidal for a country with its GDP just one hundredth of South Korea’s to go into an arms race with the U.S.-backed South. South Korea can export military weapons and equipment whereas North Korea cannot earn foreign money through its nuclear and missile assets due to economic sanctions. South Korea’s defense exports amounted to $17 billion last year, tantamount to North Korea’s annual GDP. While the South can afford to invest more on weapons development with the revenue earned from overseas, the North must pour limited — and hard-won — foreign currency into a bottomless well.

Kim finds himself in a dilemma. He cannot move further due to multiple hurdles, and at the same time, he cannot go back because he has come too far. He could place last hopes on China and Russia. But its prized nuclear assets for self-sufficiency and independence could fall under the mercy of China and Russia. The so-called juche (self-reliance) ideology painstakingly established by Kim Il Sung by purging followers of China and the Soviet Union could be destroyed by his grandson’s nuclear ambition. It could the irony of nuclear armament.

The marriage of convenience among China, Russia and North Korea could break at any time. Would Russia engaged in a war with Ukraine — and China closely linked to South Korea economically — choose the North over the South? South Korea with the world’s 10th largest economy has the independent ability to build its future. But North Korea cannot survive on its own, regardless of its nuclear weapons.

Kim must face the reality. His country cannot last long with his economy having lost the balance. To protect his rule, he must funnel the resources from nuclear weapons to economic development. There is no other way than to negotiate to strike a deal with the U.S. to normalize relationship and a peace treaty in return for a lifting of sanctions and aid for economic development.

Denuclearization is a hard and narrow path. But we cannot and must not give it up. North Korea has a future only through denuclearization. The fate of the Korean Peninsula also depends on it. North Korea has even fewer choices. Kim has lost confidence, and the economy that managed to fund the nuclear development is nearly dead. Windfalls from geopolitical developments won’t come easy. Kim must decide to divorce with nuclear weapons program. If not, the list of destructions from his blind nuclear dream will only get longer. His name could be the last on the list.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.