Putin will be OK even after Prigozhin’s revolt

Doo Jin-ho
The author is a research fellow at the Center for Security and Strategy in the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.

The Russian people taken hostage in a war with no justification admired Yevgeny Prigozhin — the head of the mercenary Wagner Group — who could be a potential hostage taker. While residents of Rostov were enthusiastic about Prigozhin and Wagner Group after they turned their guns toward Moscow, the Russian army was nearly helpless in defending the mainland from them.

After Prigozhin’s advance troops reached near Moscow on June 24, all of Russia was engulfed with the fear of a civil war. But the situation was turned around in a day. Russian President Vladimir Putin made all possible efforts to deal with the situation after the armed revolt of Wagner Group by hosting a National Security Council meeting and talking to major commanders of the military.

Although the rebellion only lasted one day, it will be remembered as an unprecedented event that made the entire world nervous. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dispatched its rapid response forces to the Baltic region, while upgrading its intelligence surveillance posture in the areas near the Black Sea and northern Europe to prepare for a possible contingency, or an outbreak of a civil war in Russia and subsequent collapse of its federal system and loss of nuclear control.

As a result of mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the worst was avoided as Wagner Group retreated at a point 200 kilometers (124 miles) from Moscow. But given the Russian military’s high reliance on mercenaries like Wagner Group, the possibility of a similar incident taking place in the future cannot be ruled out.

Why did Prigozhin carry out a reckless military rebellion? He claims that the Russian military first launched a missile attack on Wagner Group and he suffered damage, but it is difficult to identify the attacker. Putin recently decided to part ways with Prigozhin — a 20-year friend of Putin — after watching his political ambition.

Putin may thank Wagner Group for occupying Bakhmut, the fierce battlefield in the Ukraine war. But Prigozhin behaved as if he were a heavyweight on par with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Furthermore, Prigozhin’s sharp criticisms toward the Putin government irritated the Kremlin.

Putin has decided to dismiss Prigozhin’s military mutiny charge. Instead, the investigation authorities are about to start a massive probe into the state subsidies offered to Wagner Group after Putin singled out the abnormal distribution of state subsidies as the cause of the revolt. Putin’s mentioning of the subsidy issue at a recent meeting of key military commanders reflects his angst.

At the beginning of his reign, Putin used broad tax probes and criminal investigations to purge the oligarchs who were allies of rival politicians. He is expected to use a similar method to resolve the current situation. Some predicted that Prigozhin could be forcibly summoned for other charges such as embezzlement and breach of trust.

Although his leadership suffered damage, Putin will remain in power. Sovereign democracy and pan-Slavism — the ideas that Russian traditions and identity must be kept for the sake of the country’s prosperity and advancement — are still strong among the elites. Putin is the absolute final defense line of sovereign democracy. There is no alternative politician to replace him. Although the military rebellion left deep wounds on Putin, it is not strong enough to bring him down.

The latest incident will have considerable impact on China and North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, in particular, will strengthen the authorities of his bodyguard troops such as the Supreme Guard Command and reinforce the monitoring of ideology control following the military revolt by Wagner Group. North Korean residents already stricken with the Covid-19 pandemic and longstanding food shortages will suffer even further from an unrelated incident in Russia.

The Korean Peninsula is heating up this summer.

Later this month, Korea and the United States will sit down for their first Nuclear Consultative Group meeting. Expectations are high that North Korea will hold a massive military parade on July 27 to mark the 70th anniversary of the Armistice Agreement, which the country calls the “Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War.” Observers say that South Korea also will have its largest-ever Ulchi Freedom Shield military exercise in August.

The Yoon Suk Yeol administration must actively share information with the ally and partner countries and also communicate with China and Russia. To prepare for a possible contingency in North Korea, it must upgrade not only the government’s response plans but also the Korea-U.S. response plan. It is the time for the government to manage Korean Peninsula affairs in a stable way.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.