Will the Taiwan Strait be calm next year?

YOU SANG-CHUL
The author is the head of the China Institute of the JoongAng Ilbo and CEO of China Lab.

“Do you trust President Biden?” “Do you trust President Xi Jinping?” Leaders of the United States and China were asked a surprise question on Nov. 15. While Xi responded with a smile, Biden answered by calling Xi a “dictator.”

The two did not trust each other. But they still met. Why? They had to meet, like it or not, for their national interests as well as political calculation. The general consensus is that the meeting was more of a contest of spirit and did not produce many results.

However, one remark from Xi is noteworthy. He said he had no plans to invade Taiwan for several years to come. It is hard to believe his words as they are. In the past, Xi has reversed promises he made to the United States and turned an artificial island in the South China Sea into a military base.

But it is hard to say that he was making an empty promise at a meeting that the world was watching. He likely will not make the cross-strait relationship into a “third battlefield” unless Taiwan goes the path of division.

On the same day, something meaningful happened in Taiwan. Two opposition party candidates decided to join forces and field a single candidate for the January 13 presidential election.

Until now, the candidate of the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Lai Ching-te, has been leading the race. He advocated for Taiwan’s independence. And pro-China candidate Hou Yi-ih of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and moderate Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) were competing for the second and third place. If the current pace continues, it will lead Lai to victory.

But the KMT and the TPP announced a joint candidacy. Ko from the TPP said, “I hate Nationalists, but I resent the DPP even more.” It is highly likely that they will announce a single candidate by Nov. 24, the deadline for candidate registration.

A previous poll showed that if the KMT and the TPP joined forces, any joint candidate would lead the DPP. Some say that a cross-strait honeymoon period could return if the oppositions win, just as when KMT President Ma Ying-jeou was in power. Naturally, many are watching whether the turbulence the Taiwan Strait has seen throughout the presidency of DPP President Tsai Ing-wen will subside next year.

These days, some even predict that if a war breaks out in Taiwan, the “fourth battlefield” will be the Korean Peninsula.