Rival parties battle it out for pivotal early votes

General election 2024

Published: 01 Apr. 2024, 16:46 Updated: 01 Apr. 2024, 19:01

Rival parties battle it out for pivotal early votes

Left: Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung campaigns in front of Seoun Catholic Church in Incheon on Sunday. Right: People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon campaigns for the party's candidate in Yongho-dong, Nam District, in Busan on Monday. [YONHAP/NEWS1]

With early voting for the April 10 general election set to begin Friday, the prevailing trend in recent years suggests that ballots cast by advance voters may make or break the race.

Early voter turnout in Korea has been on an uptrend over the past years. The figure, which stood at 12.2 percent in the 2016 general election, gradually increased to 26.1 percent in the 2017 presidential election, 26.7 percent in the 2020 general election, and 36.9 percent in the 2022 presidential election.

During the 2020 general election, notably, candidates who secured a larger number of early ballots came out as the final winner in 44 out of 49 electoral districts in Seoul. This indicates that early voters are turning out to be a pivotal factor in determining the success of an election campaign.

The conservative People Power Party (PPP), aligned with the Yoon Suk Yeol administration, has been relatively reluctant to encourage early voting due to doubts raised about the early voting process’s reliability and concerns that higher voter turnout may translate to a disadvantage as higher early voting turnout usually worked in favor of its rival Democratic Party (DP) in past elections.

One example was the previous general election in 2020, where early voting saw a turnout of 26.7 percent and the final figure of 66.2 percent. The DP clinched a sweeping victory with 180 seats secured out of 300 in the parliament.

However, the trend was broken with the 2022 presidential election as President Yoon emerged as the winner amid a record-high early voting turnout of 36.9 percent.

As such, the PPP's interim chief, Han Dong-hoon, is promoting early voting, especially to its key voter demographics: conservative voters and those over 60.

“Some voters may have their apprehensions about the reliability of the early voting, but we have changed [the rules] starting with the upcoming election — every vote will be counted by hands,” said Han on Friday.

A source from the PPP’s election campaign committee said that “if we lose the early voting against the DP, the voters who would have been willing to participate might give up altogether,” stressing that “as early-voter mobilization may change the game, we are encouraging candidates to promote early voting.”

PPP floor leader Yun Jae-ok also said on Thursday that “the PPP will do our best to promote early voting.”

Moreover, contrary to the previous assumption that lower voter turnout among those in their 20s and 30s would work in favor of the conservative party, higher voting rates among men in the younger generation may benefit the conservative party, experts suggest.

“Male voters in their 20s and 30s are more aligned with the conservative party while their female counterparts are leaning on the liberal party,” said Choi Byeong-cheon, the former vice president of the Institute of Democracy, a policy think tank under the DP.

“If young male voters opt not to show up due to [the DP’s] campaign urging judgment against the Yoon administration, lower voter turnout may serve as a disadvantage for the PPP,” Choi suggested.

Meanwhile, the DP appears confident that the higher voting rate would result in victory for the party.

“We will win if the turnout rate goes over 65 percent,” said Lee Hae-chan, chairman of the party’s campaign committee, on March 18.

Kim Dae-jin, CEO of a polling agency Jowon C&I, claimed that “higher early voting turnout can be interpreted as [the DP’s campaign] against the government gaining traction, while a lower figure may signify that voters fed up with politics decided not to show up.”

Early voting turnout of over 30 percent will likely result in the final figure surpassing 65 percent, according to Kim.

A poll conducted by Jowon C&I from March 25 to 27 showed that 66.2 percent of respondents who said they plan to vote early will vote for the DP, whereas only 19.8 percent plan to vote for the PPP.

Keen on pushing up the early turnout, members of the liberal party are calling for a thorough investigation into a recent incident where a YouTuber installed spy cameras at early voting sites.

“We need to bring up early turnout as much as we can; if concerns about possible election fraud increase, it may discourage voters from early voting,” said a source from the DP.

Cho Kuk, chief of the Rebuilding Korea Party and the former justice minister, greets voters in Changwon, South Gyeongsang, on Sunday. [YONHAP]

Some suggest that early voting turnout may also impact former Justice Minister Cho Kuk’s Rebuilding Korea Party, as people in their 40s and 50s account for much of the party's base.

Uhm Gyeong-yeong, a political commentator, predicted that “many voters in their 40s and 50s will opt to vote at somewhere near their workplaces on Friday, April 5,” which is the first day of the two-day early-voting period, suggesting that “early turnout will be a significant factor in the party’s outcome.”

BY YOO SEONG-WOON [shin.hanee@joongang.co.kr]