Parties focus on late-deciding voters as election approaches

General election 2024

Published: 03 Apr. 2024, 17:16 Updated: 03 Apr. 2024, 19:31

Parties focus on late-deciding voters as election approaches

An official arranges stacks of ballots for the April 10 general election at the district election commission office in Seo District, Gwangju, on Wednesday. [YONHAP]

With four out of every 10 voters making up their minds on whom to cast their ballots for in the final week leading up to a general election, rival parties are doubling down on last-ditch efforts to attract supporters ahead of the April 10 general election.

According to a survey by the National Election Commission, 39.3 percent of voters decided which candidate to vote for within a week of election day during the 2012 general election.

The figure stood at 47.4 percent in 2016 and 34.2 percent in 2020.

Respondents who said they made up their minds with less than three days left accounted for 14.9 percent in 2012, 22 percent in 2016 and 20.1 percent in 2020.

As of Wednesday, polls from various agencies indicate that the majority liberal Democratic Party (DP) holds the upper hand over its rival People Power Party (PPP), which is aligned with President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Left: Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung campaigns in front of Seoun Catholic Church in Incheon on Sunday. Right: People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon campaigns for the party's candidate in Yongho-dong, Nam District, in Busan on Monday. [YONHAP/NEWS1]

However, several volatile factors may still significantly affect the election outcome, including the government’s ongoing medical reform, the surging popularity of former Justice Minister Cho Kuk’s Rebuilding Korea Party and a potential coalition among minor parties.

“While the PPP has been consistently lagging behind, there is a possibility that voters may feel inclined to seek more balance [in favor of the PPP] if the opposition, including the DP, is likely to win an overwhelming majority of over 200 seats in the National Assembly,” Lee Jae-mook, a political science professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said.

While the two major parties are calling to pass judgment on each other, experts suggest that voters in swing districts in Seoul, as well as pragmatic centrists, may be swayed by campaign narratives slamming both sides of the political aisle.

“The recent surging of support ratings for parties in the third political space, which reached a two-digit number, cannot be attributed solely to their key political bases,” said Cho Jin-man, professor of political science at Duksung Women’s University.

Cho suggested that “the campaign narratives slamming both political parties seem to be in play,” as opposed to the two major parties’ strategies to point fingers at each other — the DP mainly focusing on criticizing the Yoon administration, and the PPP slamming DP leader Lee Jae-myung and the Rebuilding Korea Party’s Cho.

In particular, the number of independent voters not affiliated with either of the two major parties is notably high in the younger voting demographic groups.

According to a recent survey by Research and Research conducted on 1,004 voters nationwide, independent voters who said they were either undecided or unwilling to support anyone accounted for 25 percent of the total among those between 18 and 29. The figure stood at 23.5 percent for those in their 30s.

In other age groups, the figures hover around 5.2 to 14.3 percent, significantly lower than younger generations.

Another survey by Gallup Korea found that independent or undecided voters comprised 27 percent of the total among those between 18 and 29.

Moreover, respondents who said they might change their minds by election day represented 57 percent of the total in the 18-29 age group and 44 percent of those in their 30s.

Whether the swing voters will cast their ballots for one of the two major parties — or even show up at the voting sites — remains to be seen.

And with only a handful of days left for the election day and early voting set to begin on Friday, the political parties are going all out on controversies surrounding unfair treatment or financial privileges involving their rival candidates, which the younger generations react more sensitively to.

“There is no doubt that voters in their 20s and 30s have been reacting negatively to unfair practices conducted by the major parties during the candidate nomination process and negative campaigns,” said Jaung Hoon, a political science professor at Chung-Ang University.

But Jaung said, “We cannot say that that will stop them from turning out at the voting stations,” adding that “the younger generations have been more inclined to cast split votes.”

Yoon Pyung-joong, professor emeritus of political philosophy at Hanshin University, also pointed out that “even political parties in the third political space that are gaining quite a traction from other generations are struggling to win votes from those in their 20s and 30s.”

Yoon said that such a phenomenon does not necessarily stem from political apathy — rather, the politicians “failed to provide a solution for the real-life struggles they are suffering.”

BY SHIM SAE-ROM, LEE CHANG-HOON, JEON MIN-GOO AND SHIN HA-NEE [shin.hanee@joongang.co.kr]