Wild cards abound in toss-up districts as Election Day approaches

General election 2024

Published: 08 Apr. 2024, 16:24 Updated: 08 Apr. 2024, 19:02

Wild cards abound in toss-up districts as Election Day approaches

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, and Han Dong-hoon, People Power Party interim chief, vote at an early voting booth on April 5, 2024. [YONHAP]

General election predictions are usually too close to call. On the rare occasion when one party is expected to win, the outcome is often different once ballots are counted.

The April 10 general election is just two days away, with early voting completed over Friday and Saturday. Amid the prospect of close races, leaders of the People Power Party (PPP) and the Democratic Party (DP) are both eyeing more than 50 “toss-up” districts, where polls show support for the two major parties within three to four percentage points of each other.

Unlike presidential elections, where voters across the country choose from the same field of candidates, general elections are much more unpredictable, with each region having its own candidates.

Not only pollsters but also political parties have trouble making predictions. They do their best to get their supporters to the polls, knowing that the outcome is not guaranteed.

Polling by both parties indicates a recent convergence of support, with analysts saying many races will be close.

Leading DP officials forecast the party will win 110 districts with toss-up races in another 50 constituencies, putting up to 160 seats in reach.

However, the party leadership is very cautious about making definite predictions.

“Although public opinion in favor of checking the current administration has expanded nationwide, it doesn't feel like a sure DP victory yet,” said Han Byung-do, chairman of the strategic planning committee of the DP. “The number of contested areas is increasing in the Seoul metropolitan area and in Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang.”

“The DP candidates can't win in every contested toss-up area,” said a senior DP official. “It is still a very close competition.”

The PPP predicted 55 toss-up districts nationwide, slightly more than the DP. Internally, the party predicts safe victories in around 90 districts. While suggests that 90 to 145 seats are within reach, there is little optimism.

“The general election is a thin, icy ground,” said Cheong Yang-seog, vice chair of the PPP’s campaign committee. “If we win in the ultra-close areas, we will win overall, but if we lose in those areas, we may even have a tough time maintaining a block on constitutional amendments in the National Assembly.”

The most contested battleground for the PPP and the DP is the Seoul metropolitan area, with 122 seats up for grabs. The DP has 20 toss-up seats, including 10 each in Seoul and Gyeonggi, while the PPP has 26 — 15 in Seoul and 11 in Gyeonggi.

Yang Moon-seok, a Democratic Party candidate bidding for a constituency in Ansan, Gyeonggi, attends a debate held in Ansan on April 3, 2024. [YONHAP]

In the metropolitan area, the biggest variables will be the fallout from two scandal-plagued DP candidates: Yang Moon-seok in Ansan, Gyeonggi, and Kim Jun-hyeok in Suwon, Gyeonggi.

Yang allegedly took out loans in the name of his daughter, who was then a college student, from a Korea Federation of Community Credit Cooperative (KFCC) outlet in Daegu in 2021, pretending to be a shopping mall operator. Instead, he used the money to buy an apartment in an upscale neighborhood in Seoul.

Kim came under fire for his remarks during an appearance on YouTube in August 2022 in which he accused the first president of Ewha Womans University of forcing students to offer sexual favors to U.S. military officers for years after Korea's liberation from Japan's colonial rule in 1945.

While the DP says that “no major changes have been detected in the Gyeonggi region in recent days,” the PPP expects a flip in election results, with Cheong saying that “the people will pass judgment against the DP’s Gyeonggi candidates.”

Both parties are making concerted efforts in the Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang areas, the so-called PK region, where 40 seats are at stake. The DP believes 15 seats in the PK region are toss-ups, while the PPP believes 13 are.

“Our candidates are running in this region with more courage than ever before,” said Kim Boo-kyum, the co-chair of the election campaign committee of the DP, on a SBS radio show program on Saturday.

“We are struggling a little bit in the PK, but in Busan and South Gyeongsang, we are rebounding from the worst phase,” said Hong Suk-joon, deputy chief of the PPP’s election situation room.

In Daejeon, Sejong and the Chungcheong area, where 28 lawmakers are to be elected, the DP believes 10 seats are up for grabs, while the PPP believes 13 seats are. In Gangwon, the DP believes five of the province's eight seats are toss-ups, while the PPP believes three are.

Experts say risk management will be the critical factor determining the outcomes in the 50-odd toss-up districts.

Park Dan, head of an emergency committee at the Korea Intern Resident Association (KIRA), attends a KIRA meeting held at the Korea Medical Association headquarters in Yongsan District, central Seoul, on April 4, 2024. [YONHAP]

One challenge for the PPP is the government's controversial decision to hike the medical school quota by 2,000 seats. The lack of progress on the issue, despite President Yoon Suk Yeol’s public address on April 1 and his meeting with the Korea Intern Resident Association (KIRA) last Thursday, is a bad sign.

“It doesn’t look good that the conflict continues despite the president’s direct involvement,” said Lee Hyun-woo, a professor of political science at Sogang University. “But if the government is seen to be doing something and the doctors’ organizations are seen to be holding out, public opinion may change.”

For the DP, individual candidate risks are swaying voters.

“The controversy over Kim Jun-hyeok’s intemperate comments has had a strong impact on moderate voters,” said Park Dong-won, head of Polycom, a political consultation company. “But it’s unclear whether the matter will stop moderate voters from passing judgment against the current administration.”

More than 300 members of the Korean National Council of Women rallied outside Kim’s campaign office in Suwon, Gyeonggi, on Saturday, calling for his withdrawal from the race, saying that “Kim humiliated and insulted Korean women with his despicable remarks" regarding the first president of Ewha Womans University.

Both the DP and PPP have issued last-minute warnings to candidates against verbal miscues, but some say the biggest risks are remarks by the leaders of the two parties themselves — DP chief Lee Jae-myung and PPP interim head Han Dong-hoon.

As the election enters its final stages, Lee’s and Han’s verbal assaults on each other and the opposing party have become frequent and more extreme.

Lee called the PPP "descendants of the perpetrators of the Jeju April 3 Uprising," while Han accused Lee of being a former user of the Korean alt-right internet forum Ilbe.

“The remarks are undignified, and they demonstrate the degeneration of Korean politics,” said Lee Jun-han, a professor of political science at Incheon National University.

Former President Moon Jae-in speaks during his visit to the southeastern city of Ulsan on April 2, 2024. [YONHAP]

Another factor affecting the outcome of the general election is former President Moon Jae-in, who has come to the forefront of politics in the final days of the campaign period.

In an unusual move for a former president, Moon has been making rounds in the PK region wearing blue — the color of the DP — and slamming the current administration as "the worst he has even seen."

While this is a move to rally support for the DP, Lee Joon-ho, the CEO of the opinion polling agency STI, pointed out that Moon’s activities "could backfire and rally PK conservatives by reminding them to pass judgment against the previous administration for its real estate policy failures."

Still, the most critical variable in the general election is the decision of centrist voters, who are underrepresented in polls.

“Although liberals and conservatives are united, there is still a significant number of people in the middle who are hesitant and undecided,” said Choi Jin, chairman of the Presidential Leadership Institute. “If the centrist voters swing to one side in the election's final days, the outcome of contested toss-up areas can change instantly.”

“It is also important to consider how angry the undecided younger generation in their 20s and 30s are with the Rebuilding Korea Party of Cho Kuk for messing with issues of fairness,” Park added.

BY OH HYUN-SEOK,KANG BO-HYUN,LIM JEONG-WON [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]