Don’t fall into the trap of confirmation bias

Lee Ho-won
The author is a professor of neurology at Kyungpook National University Hospital.

The apocalyptic black comedy “Don’t Look Up,” released on Netflix in 2021, drew attention for its star-studded cast that included Leonardo DiCaprio, Cate Blanchett and Meryl Streep. Doctor of astronomy Randall Mindy and his student discover that an unknown comet is on a path to collide with the Earth in approximately six months and will cause an energy calamity large enough to bring extinction to all living creatures. The threat is declared after scientific and mathematical verification.

Politicians use the momentum to strengthen their political footholds while the businesses capitalize on the danger to make money. The media and religious sectors pin Mindy as a doomsayer. The public loses a golden chance to avoid the collision twice through interception operations. Even as the comet becomes visible from Earth, the masses, who choose to see and hear what they wish to believe, become divided amid the contradicting campaigns asking people to “Just Look Up” versus “Don’t Look Up.” The comet eventually strikes and wipes out the planet.

Why does the public distort and choose information to reinforce their opinions? Confirmation bias refers to the tendency to favor information that supports one’s own beliefs or values. The disposition drives a person to selectively filter and store convictions and warp theories to claim an argument towards their bias.

Cognitive psychology explains confirmation bias in the context of cognitive selectivity during information processing in the brain. The posterior medial prefrontal cortex plays the crucial role of reinforcing the information an individual wants to believe while weakening the information one does not.

Bias feeds overconfidence in one’s beliefs. It builds distrust of findings that go against one’s political propensity and holds one steady to their beliefs regardless of evidence to the contrary. Scientists must stay extra conscious of confirmation bias in their research.

There was a view that kimchi could have kept Koreans immune to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) when no infection cases were reported in Korea, while the disease was in full swing in Asia between 2002 and 2003. Although the scientific correlation was unverified, some scientists joined to back the argument. A few even claimed that kimchi could be a defense against avian influenza. Lab studies later confirmed that kimchi has no preventive or curing effect on infectious diseases. Confirmation bias fed by ethnic pride interfered with scientific activity.

Confirmation bias comes into play during election season. Voters pay heed to information favorable to the candidate they support and reject contradicting views as conspiracy. Bias turns extreme when the political divide is deep. Suspicion and hostility toward the other party runs deep. Negative campaigning based on slander, smear and false information sways judgment towards candidates instead of their policy platforms.

No voter can make the right choice under such disarray, even when facts and policies are placed before their eyes. When the candidate they support loses, their confirmation bias leads them to reject the election’s outcome. They question the election process and raise all kinds of conspiracy theories.

Voters have the right to question the management of elections to ensure their validity. But raising suspicion of illegality without objective ground to do so undermines the fundamental function of an election that seeks to unify society. Unnecessary conflict and divide can incur astronomical social cost.

How can one see and interpret an event or a situation when confirmation bias may kick in? We must resort to a scientific mindset by going over our materials and experimenting. We must accept findings when they are proven. Election Day has arrived. Voters must leave their confirmation bias behind when they head to the polling stations.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.