Again 2016? Think again.

Kim Jung-ha
The author is an editorial writer of the JoongAng Ilbo.

As expected, the majority Democratic Party (DP) is muscling its way into the new legislature as if it owns it. Through its dominant power, it unilaterally elected the house speaker as well as the chairs to 11 permanent committees. Unless the governing People Power Party (PPP) cowers, the DP is out to command the chairmanships of the other seven standing committees. DP Rep. Jung Cheong-rae, chairman of the Legislation and Judiciary Committee, last Wednesday resubmitted a bill authorizing a special counsel probe of the death of a Marine, which had been vetoed by President Yoon Suk Yeol after bypassing the deliberation process. The DP used its majority power to get its way in the last National Assembly, but with some restraint. This time, it has no shame.

The legislature is not a venue for the DP to engage in a movement to push the president out of office before his term ends in 2027. The party is bent on pressing ahead with special investigations into the government’s mishandling of the Marine’s death and allegations around first lady Kim Keon Hee to build a case for impeaching the president.

Cho Kuk, the head of the splinter minority Rebuilding Korea Party, has claimed that three years left in Yoon’s term are too long. But the period will feel longer for DP leader Lee Jae-myung, who must undergo four trials simultaneously over the Daejang-dong land development scandal, his alleged violation of the Public Official Election Act and subornation of perjury, including the latest charge added for his role in the suspicious remittance of money to North Korea after his former deputy was found guilty of arranging the remittance in exchange for then-Gyeonggi Governor Lee’s visit to Pyongyang. Lee is accused of 11 counts in 7 cases. If he is fined a minimum of 1 million won ($727) in any of the trials before the 2027 presidential election, he cannot run for president.

It will be too much for Lee to prepare for presidency three years later with such huge judiciary risks. If he is found guilty in any of the lower courts, he could lose favor with voters. He will certainly wish to cut the term of the sitting power short as soon as possible. Lee was likely disappointed at the results of the April 10 parliamentary election, which secured 192 seats for the opposition. The DP could’ve immediately pressed for Yoon’s impeachment if it had won more than 200 seats in the 300-member legislature.

But Lee is not someone who easily gives up. The DP has the experience of seeing through the first-ever presidential impeachment of Park Geun-hye. It could see the impeachment of the unpopular Yoon as a breeze compared to that of Park, who had a strong support base.

Yoon’s approval rating hovers around 20 percent amid the undying controversy around his wife. The party seems to be confident of mustering 200 seats only if it shakes the PPP.

If the DP cannot gain enough support within the Assembly, it can rekindle mass protests by anti-government groups, including labor unions, to pressure the presidential office. Their banner cry of “Again 2016!” clearly reflects the DP’s and its allies’ hope to oust the president.

All thanks to the DP leader, the once-taboo mention of “presidential impeachment” is not unusual anymore. Certainly, Yoon’s government stands weak, but impeachment won’t be easy. To impeach the president, the illegalities should be grave and crystal-clear, as the conservatives have learned from Park’s impeachment eight years ago. If Lee and his party want to achieve their goal, they must provide objective proof that Yoon committed a crime as grave as felony. They won’t get their way with the logic that the president betrayed public confidence.

For the conservatives, surrendering to a presidential impeachment is synonymous with the loss of their hard-won governing power. In 2016, some in the ruling party agreed to Park’s impeachment, as former Secretary General of the UN General Assembly Ban Ki-moon posed as a strong candidate to succeed her. But that thought turned out to be naïve. The conservative front vividly remembers the wretched aftermath. It will hardly allow another impeachment.

Still, the DP leader has no choice. The three-year period is too long. At this rate, we cannot expect any productive activity from the new legislature. If the last Assembly hit the bottom, this one will most likely sink below the ground.