Brace for every possible scenario in the election

Uncertainty has swept the political scene in the United States with only four months left before the Nov. 5 presidential election. Last Thursday’s first TV debate between President Joe Biden, 81, and former President Donald Trump, 78, highlighted Biden’s cognitive issues. After the debate, Democrats increasingly demand his withdrawal from the race. If Trump widens the gap with Biden, Trump will re-enter the White House. The world is paying close attention to the possibility of Trump 2.0.

After Trump’s overwhelming victory in the TV debate, voices calling for Biden’s withdrawal from the race are growing fast in the Democratic Party. Biden flatly refused. In a family gathering at Camp David, First Lady Jill Biden reportedly insisted on her husband running to the finish line.

The emergence of political bigwigs, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who support Biden, helps divide the Democratic Party ahead of the Aug. 19 National Convention in Chicago. If Biden refuses to withdraw from the race, the party can hardly find a breakthrough. Even if Biden is replaced by someone else, the problem is the low popularity of Vice President Kamala Harris, the running mate.

Whether Biden will drop out of the race or Trump is re-elected president in the election, it can give a huge burden to President Yoon Suk Yeol, given obvious shifts in the direction of diplomacy, security and trade under a second Trump administration. If Trump is re-elected, he will surely push for the pullout of U.S. Forces Korea, a drastic increase in Korea’s defense cost-sharing and the tariff bomb. If the U.S. forces’ status quo changes, it will fuel the call for Korea’s nuclear armaments.

The results of the upcoming election will have a massive impact on the future of the Korean Peninsula. The government says it has been operating a task force to deal with the Trump risk in the Foreign Ministry, but it will not be enough to handle that. We urge the Office of National Security to launch a “one team” — encompassing the Foreign Ministry, the National Intelligence Service, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, as well as major private companies — to effectively prepare and cope with the Trump risk.

It would be better if the government can find ways to link to major Korean companies’ connections in America given their growing political stature there. At the same time, the government must foster pro-Korea voices in powerful U.S. think tanks. The time has come for the government to prepare effective responses to every conceivable scenario by mobilizing all available resources, just as Japan and Europe do. The government must minimize damages from unexpected developments and maximize national interests.