Find a breakthrough with Yoon’s visit to Beijing

YOU SANG-CHUL
The author is the head of the China Institute of the JoongAng Ilbo and CEO of China Lab.

How would Chinese President Xi Jinping feel about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin? There are two interpretations. The first is that it is not bad for China. A close relationship between North Korea and Russia can disturb the West and relieve pressure on China. The other is that Xi is uncomfortable. If North Korea, backed by Russia, commits reckless provocations, the Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation will strengthen, and China is concerned of an East Asian equivalent of “NATO.”

I think Xi would be uncomfortable. First, Putin’s moves upset Xi. Putin visited Vietnam after North Korea — the two countries considered to be exclusively under the influence of China. But Putin went around, up and down China and strengthened military cooperation. Why did Putin invade Ukraine? That’s largely because Ukraine sought to join NATO even though it is under Russia’s influence.

At first glance, China and Russia seem to get along. However, Xi may not be happy with Putin’s moves, as he attempts to restore China’s old glory. The difference between North Korea and China in the perception over the “New Cold War” is also a problem. Pyongyang considers the New Cold War an opportunity. It wants to ensure its survival by establishing the North-China-Russia front against the South-U.S.-Japan front. That’s why the North is trying to bring China to its side in the New Cold War. But China sees the war as a crisis.

China believes that the U.S. deliberately caused the New Cold War to cut off China from the West. Therefore, China wants to avoid it at all costs. Naturally, Xi is not pleased with North Korea deepening the ideological divide. This is one of the reasons why North-China relations have been estranged recently. Moreover, China does not want to be considered being on par with international outcasts such as North Korea and Russia. If so, what should South Korea do? It seems that it is not the time for Seoul to supply Ukraine with attack weapons in response to the restoration of the North-Russia military alliance.

Rather, it would be wise to strengthen relations with China. In fact, both North Korea and Russia desperately need help from China, but they are both complaining that China is not helping them earnestly. The latest show of solidarity between North Korea and Russia is largely for China to see. Then, for South Korea, improving relations with China could be the biggest retaliation against the North and Russia. A shortcut to recover Korea-China ties is through a summit. It is too late for Seoul to wait for Xi’s trip to South Korea for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in the fall of 2025.

There is no guarantee that Xi will come to South Korea, either. Given the current situation, it is worth considering President Yoon Suk Yeol’s visit to China first. China may need to provide a breakthrough in the frozen relations by lifting the ban on Korean pop culture.