Classroom sizes may drop to under 10 as population plummets, report warns

Social Affairs

Published: 05 Jul. 2024, 18:00

Classroom sizes may drop to under 10 as population plummets, report warns

Several elementary school students head to their school in Seoul in March. [NEWS1]

An average elementary school classroom may have fewer than 10 students within a decade, according to a recent report.

According to Good Teacher, a civic group for educators, elementary school classes are likely to have 8.8 students on average by 2034 based on a low-level estimate assuming the fastest population decline based on school-age population estimates announced by Statistics Korea in June 2023.

A forum on the birthrate crisis and education reform was co-hosted Thursday by three lawmakers serving on the National Assembly’s education committee — Reps. Kim Moon-soo and Bak Seung-a from the liberal Democratic Party and Rep. Kang Kyung-sook from the Rebuilding Korea Party — and a civic organization dedicated to reducing the private education burden.

In a scenario with the steepest population decline, the country would see a single-digit number of students per class by 2033 for the first time in history, with 9.3 pupils per class.

The estimates indicate that average class sizes will halve in just 10 years from last year’s 21.1.

If population trends continue, elementary classes will likely have 5.5 students by 2060 and 2.7 by 2070.

The other scenario, with a more gradual decline, also predicted an average elementary class size of 9.8 students in 2034 before shrinking to 8.7 and 6.0 students by 2060 and 2070, respectively.

Hong In-ki, head of Good Teacher's elementary education policy team, warned that the shrinking school-age population would severely hit areas with what the government designates as "small-sized schools."

“School closures can demotivate young adults to come and settle in those areas,” Hong said, warning that villages and localities could face extinction.

He also claimed that the government should “lower the threshold of small-sized schools from today’s 120 to 60” and legislate a bill that provides special support to such schools.

In the forum, professionals raised concerns over the government’s new population policy and direction. “Solutions to alleviate academic competition for college admissions do not exist,” they said.

Paik Byeong-hwan, head of the civic organization's policy team, said the Ministry of Education's decision to maintain autonomous private high schools, foreign language schools and global high schools “increases the cost burden of private education [such as tutoring or attending cram schools].”

The three types of high schools select students through tests and screenings and are known for sending most of their students to top-ranked universities.

He also said the ministry’s decision to continue grading the state-run college scholastic ability test on a curve reinforced student competition.

On Monday, the government said it plans to launch a new vice-ministerial-level office — tentatively named the Ministry of Population Strategy and Planning — within the next three months to better respond to the fertility crisis.

“Although the government heightened people’s awareness of the low birthrate crisis after designating it a ‘national demographic emergency,’ education policies never end the competition" that students face, Paik said. He also said he doubts "whether the government truly recognizes the seriousness of the problem.”

Paik called for a fundamental solution that can address people’s perception of Korea as an “unsafe place to raise children,” adding that the status quo cannot be fixed with just a few parenting support policies.

BY HA SU-YOUNG, LEE SOO-JUNG [lee.soojung1@joongang.co.kr]