Confusion from the presidential election

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Confusion from the presidential election

Published: 29 Jul. 2024, 19:50 Updated: 29 Jul. 2024, 19:54

Seo Jung-kun
The author is a professor of political science and international relations at Kyung Hee University and a member of the political division of the JoongAng Ilbo’s Reset Korea campaign.

The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November is marked by many unprecedented events. The first former president to be indicted and convicted was able to defer his judicial risks until after the election after the Supreme Court recognized for the first time a form of presidential immunity from prosecution. It was the first time since the 1892 race that an incumbent and a former president faced off again, but the dropout of the president created yet another unprecedented record of his running mate replacing him.

The candidate who first proposed the TV debate in June had to drop out in the aftermath of his failure. Then, his rival, who had been the symbol of division, suddenly became the poster child for unity after a failed assassination attempt during the weekend on the eve of a party convention.

Soon after, his rival party’s candidate was replaced by the first black woman candidate. It was also the first time that the Democratic Party — a party known for its opinionated members — united behind the new candidate in an orderly fashion. With 100 days to go, there is no reason to believe that there won’t be another event.

The key for this year’s election has not changed much. It is a matter of which of the two familiar election principles will prevail. The first is public judgment of the incumbent president. Right now, the biggest complaint of American voters is inflation, or skyrocketing groceries and housing costs.

This is why the Democrats abandoned their attempt to promote “Bidenomics” earlier this year after the inflation rate fell to 3 percent from 9 percent; the party fears the backlash of public sentiment. It was reminiscent of Jimmy Carter’s 1980 re-election defeat, when the administration suffered from high prices and an oil crisis combined with his image of incompetence.

President Joe Biden’s fumbling Middle East policy, which seemed to be dragged along by the reckless Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, made many young voters turn against him. Republican candidate Donald Trump will likely focus on likening Kamala Harris, the current vice president and new presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, to Biden.

The second factor that decides an election outcome is political polarization. No matter how bad the economy is, no matter how many times the border was crossed and no matter how divided the country is over wars abroad, the only motivation of the Democratic Party’s supporters was that they don’t want Trump to get re-elected as president.

And yet, the failed assassination attempt on Trump shortly before the Republican National Convention — and the photo of Trump resolutely clenching his fist in the air — neutralized even Biden’s glimmer of hope. Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race under such circumstances restored the momentum to reshape the election by reminding voters about political polarization. The desperation of the Democrats in an era of polarization that they cannot endure another four years of Trump presidency has fueled the new slogan “We are not going back.”

Despite her lack of experience, Harris has generated excitement among younger voters, driven by social media memes. At the upcoming Democratic National Convention in August, Biden will surely be hailed as a national icon, delegates will show their emotions, Barack Obama will deliver a strong speech to drum up excitement and next-generation governors will rally around Harris as they call for unity. All the scenes will shape the presidential election into a fierce race. At the end of the day, the strategy of the Democratic Party is boosting voter turnouts and encouraging early voting.

In the United States, chaos in an election means chaos in politics and diplomacy. The U.S. foreign policy suffering from severe polarization will inevitably be unstable. The Republican Party is changing its stance to non-interventionism and increasing defense cost sharing, while the Democratic Party is shifting toward alliances and coalitions of values.

The Democratic Party, whose centrist members are decreasing while progressive members gain more power, agrees to contain China, but doesn’t appear to have any intention to aggressively treat the Asian superpower. It needs to seek cooperation with China on climate change and cut defense budgets. The tendency of production in the United States and trade protectionism will be strengthened, but it is unclear if Biden’s approach of using government resources will repeat in the future. The United States, a global leader that transformed the world, is radically changing from the inside.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.