Grenell's rise as Trump foreign policy team frontrunner sparks concern in South Korea

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Grenell's rise as Trump foreign policy team frontrunner sparks concern in South Korea

Published: 11 Nov. 2024, 19:16 Updated: 11 Nov. 2024, 19:25

SEO JI-EUN
seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, right, and Trump’s former ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell watch at a campaign event in Smithton, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 23. [AP/YONHAP]

[NEWS ANALYSIS]

As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s second administration begins to take shape, among the frontrunners for a top foreign policy and national security role is Richard Grenell, Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, who has hinted at potential withdrawals of U.S. troops from South Korea.

On Saturday, Trump announced on Truth Social that he ruled out former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo from the upcoming administration, a move widely seen as part of Trump’s effort to fill his foreign policy team exclusively with loyalists. This has intensified interest in Grenell, along with former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and Senators Marco Rubio and Bill Hagerty, as candidates for the roles of secretary of state and national security advisor.

Analysts are weighing in on what repercussions the incoming Trump administration's security team may have on South Korea's diplomacy and defense landscape.

Richard Grenell, former U.S. ambassador to Germany, stands onstage ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 14. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Grenell has been a vocal advocate for Trump’s vision of burden-sharing, calling for allies to increase their contributions to U.S.-provided security. During a press briefing at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July, he said that Trump’s foreign policy requires allies and partner nations to contribute fairly and that no club in the world allows members to use facilities without paying dues. He urged allies to pay the bill, reinforcing Trump’s approach that U.S. security support should be treated as a service with costs attached.

In a March podcast, Grenell argued that a "tough" secretary of state is essential to avoid conflict, stating, “If you want to avoid war, you better have a son of a bitch as secretary of state.” Trump often referred to Grenell as “a great fighter.”

Grenell was the first high-ranking official to openly discuss Trump’s potential plans for U.S. troop withdrawals from allied nations.

In a June 2020 interview with Bild, a German newspaper, he outlined Trump’s stance: “Donald Trump was clear — we want to bring troops home from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, from South Korea, Japan, and Germany.”

Grenell added that Americans were "getting a little tired of paying too much for the defense of other countries," echoing a central theme of Trump’s foreign policy.

Trump later reiterated his frustrations in a New York Times interview in November 2021, lamenting the lack of higher defense contributions from South Korea and vowing to complete these objectives if re-elected. During the campaign, Trump even referred to South Korea as a “money machine” in an interview with Bloomberg, saying, “If I were in the White House now, they’d be paying us $10 billion a year. And you know what? They’d be happy to do it.”

As U.S. ambassador to Germany from 2018 to 2020, Grenell pushed for troop reductions in Germany, urging the country to allocate 2 percent of its GDP to defense — aligning with Trump’s emphasis on “America First” diplomacy and pressuring European allies to shoulder more defense responsibilities.

Reflecting on this policy approach, former U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper revealed in his memoir "A Sacred Oath" (2020) that Pompeo had persuaded Trump to defer his desire to withdraw U.S. forces from South Korea to a potential second term. Yet Pompeo is notably absent from the new administration’s roster.

However, Sen. Hagerty of Tennessee, another potential candidate to take a leading foreign policy role in Trump’s second administration, suggested that Trump's talk of pulling U.S. troops out of South Korea during his first term may have been a negotiating tactic to encourage allies in the Asia-Pacific region to boost defense spending, including contributions for U.S. security commitments, calling it "how a business person negotiates."

Grenell’s remarks suggest a potential shift in Trump’s North Korea policy.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, right, meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Sentosa Island in Singapore on June 12, 2018, during Trump's first term. [AP/YONHAP]

In a PBS interview in July, Grenell acknowledged that “the U.S. needs to deal with the reality” of North Korea’s nuclear status. Analysts fear this reflects Trump's preference for negotiating with North Korea as a de facto nuclear state, focusing on preventing further development of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

“We don’t necessarily want to be the ones saying Kim Jong-un has to be replaced,” Grenell said, describing Kim as a “madman” with nuclear capabilities. He praised Trump’s past direct diplomacy with Kim, saying, “Trump was protecting America by meeting Kim face-to-face.”

The Republican Party’s platform released before the election omitted references to Korean Peninsula denuclearization for the first time, signaling a possible shift.

Trump, who emphasized his positive relationship with Kim during the campaign, remarked, “It’s nice to get along when somebody has a lot of nuclear weapons.” He even revealed that he had once invited Kim to a New York Yankees baseball game as part of diplomatic efforts.

The South Korean government has underscored the strong ties between South Korea and the United States ahead of possible renewed U.S. demands for increased defense contributions.

Addressing a range of alliance-related issues, including cost-sharing for defense, the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine and military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, South Korea's Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo said Seoul and Washington would be reviewing “where to focus our choices and priorities” during a press briefing on Sunday.

Kim stressed the U.S.-South Korea alliance and South Korea as a model case for sharing defense responsibilities.

“We will steadily pursue the goal for North Korea's denuclearization and strengthen alliance with the United States based on nuclear deterrence with the new U.S. administration," Kim said. “We will continue to institutionalize cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan and deepen our trilateral coordination.”

BY KANG TAE-HWA, SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]