Party primary voters confound experts

ULSAN - A new political landscape faced the Millennium Democratic Party Sunday after its new presidential primary produced an upset and a new front-runner - at least for now.

By capturing the Ulsan primary, where 1,017 of the 1,424 authorized electors voted, Representative Noh Mu-hyun, a candidate of a reform stripe, took the initial lead in the seven-week primary campaign. He obtained a total of 423 votes of the 1,692 votes cast in Ulsan and Jeju.

Representative Rhee In-je, the predicted front-runner, was second with 394 votes.

Mr. Noh had been expected to win in Ulsan, his home town. The surprise came in Jeju, where Representative Hahn Hwa-kap took Saturday's voting. The combined results put Mr. Hahn fourth, with 291 votes.

Another native of South Gyeongsang province, Representative Kim Joong-kwon, finished second in Ulsan and stood in third place overall with 336 votes.

The voting rate in Ulsan was 71. 4 percent; in Jeju it was 85.2 percent.

Representative Chung Dong-young, North Jeolla Governor You Jong-keun and Representative Kim Keun-tae trailed the leaders, and election watchers suggested that one or more of them might drop out.

"A trend has been set. I have gained confidence," said Mr. Noh.

Mr. Rhee vowed to fight back. "I will stage an upset as soon as possible," he said.

Fourteen more primaries will be held before the campaign ends in Seoul April 27. The electoral college for the primaries consists of 70,000 voters, half party figures and half volunteers from the public. They are asked to rank all the candidates one through seven. If no one has received 50 percent of the votes after the primaries are over, second-place votes from the last-place candidates, one by one, will be added to the totals of the leaders until a majority is produced. That candidate will then the the party's nominee for the December presidential election.

Mr. Noh acknowledged that his support base in Ulsan produced his victory, but warned against prematurely assigning regional affiliation as the sole determinant of electoral success.

"We will have to watch the March 16 Gwangju primary," Mr. Noh said. Gwangju is the where the ruling party is headquartered, and Mr. Noh, Mr. Rhee and Mr. Hahn all express confidence of winning.

But if the Jeju and Ulsan primaries are any indication of what factors will shape the outcome, a mix of a candidate's in-party organization and regional base will be crucial. The Jeju upset testified to the organizational prowess Mr. Hahn enjoyed there.

"I am surprised. It means that his deep party roots worked," said Professor Cho Ki-suk of Ewha Womans University in Jeju.

Mr. Hahn barely nipped Mr. Rhee, 175 votes to 172. Two reformers, Mr. Noh, a former maritime affairs and fisheries minister, and Mr. Chung, a former television anchor, took third and fourth with 125 votes and 110.

In Ulsan, warned by Kim Young-bae, the party's election committee chairman, against slandering each other, the seven candidates noticeably toned down their vituperation.

Harsh oratory, mostly directed against Mr. Rhee, characterized the Jeju primary and gave it the feel of a street rally rather than an adventure in democracy - or in the party's favorite phrase, a "political revolution." The response from the electors ranged from positive to nonchalant.

"I was inspired by Mr. Chung's speech," said Kang Mi-young, 27, a party member in Jeju. But having been recruited by Mr. Hahn's camp, she voted as she was supposed to.

"It is a good thing I came. I decided to come after seeing last night's television debate," said Kwon Mi-young, 32, another party member in Jeju. She did not vote for the candidate she came out to support initially.

The voting was on an electronic touch screen, producing the results immediately after polls closed.

by Kim Ji-soo