[Column] The symbolism of Kim’s daughter

Kim Byung-yeon

The author is a professor of economics and head of the Institute for Future Strategy at Seoul National University.

When North Korea test-fired its most-advanced ICBM, the Hwasong-17, on Nov. 18, Kim Jong-un brought one of his daughters to the launch site. That drew a global attention. In a meeting in 2018 with Mike Pompeo, U.S. CIA director at the time, Kim said, “I don’t want my children to live under the weight of nuclear weapons for the rest of their life.” Any parents would not. But after four years, Kim invited a daughter to the test site of an ICBM capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Why such an about-turn? What message did the North Korean leader try to deliver to whom?

Power to sustain dictatorship comes from people’s support. The famous quote from Chairman Mao — “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun” — could be right in the short term. But you cannot rule the people with a gun forever. Even a dictator must earn the hearts of his people particularly when their support precipitously falls due to economic hardship.

North Korea’s mouthpiece Rodong Sinmun reported that Kim Jong-un guided the launch of an ICBM after bringing his daughter to the site on Nov. 18. [NEWS1]

Average income in the North is believed to have declined nearly 40 percent compared to 2016 after their major income sources — market activities, earning hard currencies by sending laborers overseas, and smuggling along the northern border — were all blocked by international sanctions and the pandemic. The median income of a four-member household, which stood at $40 in 2016, has dropped below $30. In the meantime, prices of rice and corn — staples for North Koreans — soared by 20 to 50 percent over the past six years. If their economic conditions worsen further, they disgruntlement about the leader’s focus on developing nuclear weapons will deepen. Kim Jong-un had to quell dissatisfaction.

The appearance of his daughter, a symbol of the future generation, at the test site is apparently linked to the need to persuade his people. Kim certainly wanted to send the message that they must endure current economic pains for their children. Her appearance was a highly-calculated political — and emotional — show to persuade North Koreans to accept nuclear weapons to safeguard their children from external threats. At the same time, Kim wanted to demonstrate a determination to protect the safety of future generations, as he is also a father of children just like ordinary people.

The daughter’s appearance at the test site testifies to the irrevocability of his nuclear weapons program in the same context as the legislation of nuclear armaments in September. If the legislation is Kim’s official declaration of a policy not to accept denuclearization in any future negotiations with the U.S., the appearance of the daughter is his personal manifestation of a determination to protect his family — and the rest of his people. Kim would want Uncle Sam to come up with a proposal for nuclear reduction talks, not denuclearization talks.

The daughter’s surprising debut shows how desperate the North Korean leader is. It was a sign that Kim Jong-un faces a tough situation, as he had to draw his daughter to his political show aimed at propagandizing the value of nukes. Kim has not found any solutions to resolve an economic crisis. If he lifts a ban on smuggling and encourages market activities, it could help his people to some degree. But Kim will gradually lose control of their lives. As he already stressed the need for self-reliance in an uphill battle against sanctions, he can hardly receive humanitarian aid from South Korea, either. To resuscitate the moribund economy, the North’s economic relations with China must return to pre-pandemic levels, but the North Korean leader has to wait for Beijing to fully lift its regulations for Covid-19. Kim must be worried about how long the North Korean economy can withstand all uncertainties. He can control people’s complaints for now, but no one knows when they explode.

Another worry comes from the precariousness of the Xi Jinping regime. China’s rigid economic operation and zero-Covid policy hamper growth and job creation. If Xi’s chant for “common wealth” should succeed, he could deserve a Nobel prize. But the probability is nearly zero. Moreover, the ongoing Sino-U.S. conflict only hurts the Chinese economy. If China becomes unstable, it cannot afford to help North Korea. Worse, Beijing could be tempted to use North Korea as a card to improve its relations with Washington. Such vulnerabilities of North Korea made Kim Jong-un bring one of his three daughters to the missile test site last month.

Nuclear weapons cannot be the future of North Korea. Instead, they will destroy the country, as they are merciless weapons that can deprive its young generation of an opportunity to join the international society to achieve their dreams. Kim used his daughter as a means for political propaganda for his own people still struggling to survive. Would he bring all his children to a political show next time? What would be the next then?

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.