The Trump effect revived

Chae Byung-gun
The author is the international, diplomatic and security news director of the JoongAng Ilbo.

It is rare for a media company to announce that its own poll result is not in line with the trend. The Washington Post (WP) did just that late last month. After the presidential poll by the WP and ABC showed Donald Trump beating President Joe Biden by 9 percent (51 to 42), they said it could be an “outlier.” It was indeed. In the 23 nationwide polls conducted in the past month, Biden and Trump were pitted against each other within the margin of error, according to Real Clear Politics. The WP-ABC poll was the only one showing Trump leading Biden by nearly a double digit.

Nevertheless, I feel a bit uncomfortable because it reminds me of the U.S. presidential election seven years ago. It was a tight race between Trump and Hilary Clinton. But the mainstream media dismissed the possibility of Trump’s victory. About a month before the election, I had a chance to discuss the election with an American diplomat. He said that Trump was not a serious topic in Washington but Trump-Pence flags were placed everywhere if you went out of the area a bit. So, no one could be sure of the result, he said. His personal opinion was more realistic than the mainstream media.

Seven years ago, neither the mainstream American media nor the Korean media, which relied on it, could avoid the error. As the media could not agree with Trump’s America, they collectively ignored Trump’s possible victory. The clear difference in the mood at campaigns was not accurately reported in the mainstream media. The white, blue-collar workers were lively and passionate as they cheered for Trump at his rallies. Hilary Clinton’s campaign rallies were like relaxed town meetings that Democrats enjoyed with family and neighbors. Enthusiasm and cheering were on Trump’s side.

Thirteen months are left until the U.S. presidential election, and an unexpected event can happen at the Super Tuesday Republican Primary next March. But now, Trump is a constant. In the 23 polls conducted last month, Biden came ahead in seven, the two were tied in seven, and Trump lead in nine. In the NBC poll, Biden and Trump tied, both with 46 percent, which shows Biden’s decline from the same survey three months prior, where Biden had 49 percent and Trump 45 percent.

Above all, the “Trump Effect” is ongoing. Whether he is nominated as the Republican presidential candidate next year or not, every word from Trump — the “overwhelmingly dominant Republican candidate” — is being delivered to American voters. His campaign website states that one of the most notable accomplishments during his presidency was the revision of the horrible agreement signed with Korea, referring to the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement made during the Democratic administration. One of the key economic promises by Trump is the “mutually beneficial trade act” based on “an eye for an eye” to impose the same tariff if India, China or another country hit the U.S. with a 100 percent or 200 percent tariff. As it is a trade war against China, Korea will inevitably be affected. Trump also promised to prevent U.S. dollars from flowing into Chinese electric car makers in the form of subsidies because of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The pledge will not be beneficial to Korea’s related industries as it certainly means a stricter electric car battery regulation than the IRA.

Trump is also agitating U.S. citizens with the “free security rides” by allies. He underscored the need to force Europe to pay back the cost of America helping Ukraine, as the U.S. spent $200 billion to help Ukraine while Europe only spent a small amount. It could affect Korea and Japan. Trump also said he would not intervene in “unnecessary overseas wars,” which makes U.S. allies uneasy.

The time has come to prepare for another Trump effect stimulating sentiments of American voters. If the press made the mistake of ignoring the possibility of Trump’s victory seven years ago, the press will make the same mistake if they think the U.S. will return to the time “before Trump’s reemergence” if he is defeated this time. Even if Trump loses the presidential election, the America First sentiment he engraved in American voters will not disappear. Just look at the Democratic Party and the Biden administration resuming the construction of the wall along the border ahead of the election despite their past criticism on the plan.

The Trump effect will continue even if he disappears from political scenes. If he enters the white House again, it will be a direct hit from Trump, not just the Trump effect. It is time to prepare to find ways to minimize the dismal impact on Korea-U.S. relations by assuming that the U.S. will have a stronger America-centered policy even after the presidential race.