Bumpy road ahead for EU expansion

AHN BYUNG-UK
The author is a professor of international relations at Daegu University.

“Enlargement is a geo-strategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity,” according to the Granada Declaration, adopted at an informal meeting of the European Council in Granada, Spain, on Oct. 6. In the meeting, there was an opinion to conclude the EU enlargement by 2030, but specific milestones were not included in the declaration.

Since Croatia’s entry in 2013, the European Union has been unable to afford to expand its membership, as it had to respond to a series of crises, such as the economic crisis and the pandemic. In order to resolve the geopolitical uncertainty created by the Ukraine war that broke out in February 2022, leaders have agreed in principle to expand the EU by including Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia and Montenegro.

Post-war recovery costs are expected to exceed twice Ukraine’s current GDP. Those costs will continue to incur as long as “gray areas” like Ukraine remain. The EU only guarantees the security of its members indirectly. But if Ukraine had been a member of the EU, Russia would not have launched an invasion so easily.

EU enlargement will be a long and arduous journey. It is not easy for candidate countries to achieve the level of democracy, market economy and rule of law required to join the EU. Even during the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced the defense minister and the head of the military recruitment to fight corruption. In the Transparency International’s 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Ukraine ranked 116th, only ahead of Russia’s 137th in Europe.

Also, the EU itself must improve the speed and efficiency of policymaking. Foreign and security policy can be vetoed by member states. If Serbia and Montenegro, both with strong pro-Russian tendencies, join, they may stubbornly oppose sanctions on Russia — just like Hungary did. Therefore, there are voices for the introduction of a majority vote in some foreign and security policies.

EU budget reform is more difficult. Two-thirds of the current budget are used to support farmers and underdeveloped areas in member countries. As Poland’s farmers account for 8.4 percent of the population — twice the EU average — and has many underdeveloped areas, the country received 2.5 times more in assistance than its contribution. As Ukraine’s farming industry makes up 14 percent of the population — 1.7 times that of Poland — it has far more underdeveloped regions. If Ukraine joins the EU, Poland will change from a net beneficiary of the EU budget to a net contributor. As the budget policy change requires a unanimous approval, Poland has a good reason to reject the joining of Ukraine in the EU.

Ukraine applied to join the EU a month after the war broke out and gained its candidate status three months later. It became a candidate country more quickly than any other in history, but it has only just begun to climb the steep hill of joining the international body.