Korea’s birthrate now an international concern

If the alarming low birth rate continues in Korea, the country may experience a depopulation exceeding what the Black Death delivered to Europe in the 14th century. In a New York Times column titled “Is South Korea Disappearing?” Ross Douthat wrote that if Korea’s population plunges to fewer than 35 million by the late 2060s, it can “thrust Korean society into crisis.” The columnist added, “The South Korean example demonstrates that the birth dearth can get much worse much faster than the general trend in rich countries so far.” Korea’s total fertility rate, which fell to 0.78 last year, is fast becoming an international concern.

Korea’s low birth rate is nearly unprecedented in terms of the speed of decline and duration. Since the ultralow birth phenomenon first hit Korea in 2002, the trend has persisted over the past 20 years without exceeding 1.3 in total fertility rate. After the rate set another record of 0.7 in the third quarter, this year’s figure is expected to drop to 0.73, even lower than 0.78 in the previous year.

The government has spent a whopping 380 trillion won ($292.5 billion) to recover the fertility rate since 2006, but the younger generation’s avoidance to bear a child is deepening. All prescriptions didn’t work.

A recent report by the Economic Research Institute under the Bank of Korea portends a gloomy future of the country. After analyzing the reasons, impact and countermeasures against the extreme demographic structure epitomized by the ultralow birthrate and super-aged society, the report presented a pessimistic projection that our economy will most likely be headed to a growth lower than zero percent by 2050. The report also suggested solutions to lift the dismal birthrate through policy tools.

For instance, the report presented concrete solutions aimed at easing the mounting pressure on the younger generation over employment and housing. If the government pushes forward structural reforms to address the dual labor structure and high housing prices at the same time, it can elevate the lethargic birthrate, the report stressed. It also recommended that the government draw up children-oriented policies beyond the traditional boundaries of legal marriage to avoid an imminent population cliff. If such policies can raise the birthrate by 0.2 percentage points, Korea’s potential economic growth will go up by 0.1 percentage point, the report says.

Korea faces an unheard-of population crisis. We do not have time to dilly-dally anymore. Only when the government starts structural reform to sustain society and abandons all discrimination against kids born out of wedlock will the country not disappear.