A party with no sense of crisis

Kang Chan-ho
The author is an editorial writer of the JoongAng Ilbo.

The owner of a bar in Incheon worriedly told a People Power Party (PPP) lawmaker that seven out of 10 customers talk disapprovingly of President Yoon Suk Yeol. When the lawmaker stepped into a street-stall bar, five of them recognized him and ranted that they change the channel when the president appears on TV. The legislator, who was elected against the rival Democratic Party (DP) candidate by a narrow margin three years ago, said that he wished to tape the voices of critical voters to play at a full meeting of the governing party.

Thirty-something Kim Jae-sub, in charge of Dobong District, northern Seoul, which was represented by the DP, admits that he dreads meeting district residents these days because they say they like him but do not like the man in the presidential office. Many tell the young politician that they would vote for him if he were not with the PPP. “We are back to the time three years ago when the PPP was crushed by the DP.” The majority opposition has been plagued with judicial risks related to its leader, Lee Jae-myung, who is currently being tried for multiple charges. But what matters more to voters is that they are disappointed that the president is not delivering what he promised to a year and a half ago, the political rookie said.

A taxi driver who was taking me back home from the emptied roads of Yeouido, western Seoul, grumbled about the lack of passengers during peak times after dark. The only locations where he can find customers are the youthful streets of Gangnam District, Hongdae, and Tapgol Park in central Seoul. The drinking stalls near the park, which used to be crowded with seniors, are now filled with young people who cannot afford to drink in more expensive places. “This is how bad the economy feels,” the driver complained.

This is how the people living in the capital area feel about its governing force. Yet the PPP remains carefree. Lawmakers hoping to run in the region have little voice in its meetings. Their elders representing the Yeongnam region — the traditional conservative base of Daegu and southern Gyeongsang Province — and dominating executive titles such as the chairman, floor leader and secretary general are the only ones who speak and merely chant unity. Their strategy is to push ahead with the campaign in their own way instead of reinventing the party ahead of April’s parliamentary election.

The people surrounding the president are all from the Yeongnam region. They dislike any change to the status quo. Since they voted for the current party leader in the convention in return for sure tickets for easy-win districts, they cannot accept the innovation committee’s suggestion that they run on tough battlefields. When the president turns to appeal more to centrists or take a pragmatic path, they protest on fear of losing favor with the diehard conservative supporters. As a result, the PPP suffered a landslide defeat in a recent by-election in Seoul.

The Yeongnam heavyweights cite poll results to stick to their path. The polls show the PPP on par with — or slightly ahead of — the DP, which they claim can assure at least 50 seats in the capital region and 151 across the nation in the upcoming election to become a majority. They are entirely fooling themselves.

The parliamentary election on April 10, which will serve as a mid-term referendum on the president, will be decided by the public’s opinion of the president, not of the party. The president’s approval rating has remained 40 percent in the capital region, while disapproval nears 60 percent. Five days before the last parliamentary election in 2020, the approval and disapproval ratings of then-president Moon Jae-in were around 57 and 35 percent, respectively. The election results mirrored the poll reading, delivering 179 seats to the DP and just 102 to the PPP. The two parties share support ratings at the 30-percent level. Centrists who support neither party account for 40 percent, of which 70 percent are presumed to dislike the PPP more than they dislike the DP.

At this rate, the PPP will perform just as dismally as it did in the last parliamentary election, or even worse. In Seoul, it can, at best, win the rich neighborhoods of Gangnam and Seocheo and garner a maximum of 100 seats. The party would degenerate into a party representing only certain regions.

The art of politics lies in the ability to make the impossible possible. The president must stand at the forefront. Before he was due to make his address at the National Assembly regarding next year’s budget on Oct. 31, Rep. Kang Sung-hee of the minority splinter opposition Justice Party raised a picket reading that what should be cut was not the budget, but Yoon’s term. If the president nevertheless had walked up to shake hands with Kang, the public would have found fondness in his humor. That’s politics. If the president engages his within-party critics like Lee Jun-seok, he could see his ratings go up. The president must change his attitude toward the people, who tend to build their likings toward presidents based on their attitudes.

The president must shift his attention away from lawmakers in the Yeongnam region and towards those who faces uphill battles in the capital. In elections, structural dynamism is as important as platforms and figures. The public’s judgement of the president will be decisive in the next election. His winning strategy should be clearly laid out.