Headed to an election defeat without change

With just four months left before the April 10 parliamentary election, the governing People Power Party (PPP) is showing strong signs of defeat. An internal poll points to its clear lead in only six of the 49 constituencies in Seoul. In the last election in 2020, the party won eight seats in the capital and had a crushing defeat nationwide. After being briefed about the shabby scorecard, the leadership of the PPP was busy keeping it secret.

Public sentiment against the PPP can be found in the large share of voters determined to cast their ballot to judge the government in the upcoming election. According to a recent Gallup Korea poll, 51 percent would vote for the Democratic Party (DP) to help it check the conservative government, while only 35 percent would vote for the PPP. President Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating also fell to 32 percent from 35 percent two weeks ago.

The PPP did try to innovate the self-complacent party after its landslide defeat in a Seoul by-election in October. Support for the party rose, albeit temporarily, after it launched an innovation committee led by Ihn Yo-han, the naturalized physician recruited to reinvent the lethargic party. But after the committee demanded PPP heavyweights run in constituencies other than their home grounds to help reshape the party, they refused to accept it and disbanded the innovation committee. Even PPP leader Kim Gi-hyeon broke his promise to give all authority to the committee head. The committee had to shutter last week, two weeks earlier than scheduled.

The PPP now faces a crisis bigger than its crushing loss in the by-election. After the government’s failed bid for the 2030 World Expo, even citizens in Busan are shaking. The business-as-usual mood in the presidential office under such circumstances is dumbfounding. President Yoon showed some signs of change by appointing experts and women in ministerial posts in his Dec. 4 reshuffle, but allowed his chief of staff and other controversial ministers to remain.

If this continues, the PPP will likely not even get 100 seats in the 300-member National Assembly in the April election. In that case, the party cannot even block the DP from submitting a motion to impeach the president or a bill to amend the Constitution. In that case, the Yoon administration will be in a vegetative state after just two years in power. Senior lawmakers of the PPP have started to call for the resignation of the party leader Kim.

And yet, mainstream politicians of the party are still laid back. They say it is not too late for the party to take action after watching the DP’s move. The PPP leader must squarely face reality and turn the tide by presenting colossal reform plans, including his own stepping down from the post.