As torrential downpours increase, new KMA chief focuses on accurate forecasts

Social Affairs

Published: 03 Jul. 2024, 17:25 Updated: 03 Jul. 2024, 18:13

As torrential downpours increase, new KMA chief focuses on accurate forecasts

Jang Dong-un, new administrator of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) gives an inaugural speech at the Government Complex Daejeon in Daejeon on Monday. [KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION]

The national weather agency is bracing for potential disaster-level downpours this summer and strives for accurate forecasts, according to Jang Dong-un, the new chief and administrator of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).

Jang is a veteran forecaster and weather researcher with career experience at the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) after majoring in atmospheric science at Seoul National University.

Jang joined the KMA in 2001 as a researcher and became the agency's chief on July 1.

“There is no guarantee that torrential rainfall that flash-flooded the capital in August 2022 won't pound the country again this year,” Jang said during an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo on Sunday.

He noted that “climate change disrupted the rainfall pattern in summertime and made the weather difficult to forecast.”

The 2022 rainfall refers to when Seoul received 141 millimeters (5.55 inches) of rainfall per hour on Aug. 8 of that year.

The downpour — considered to happen once in 500 years — flooded Gangnam Station and killed three people who drowned in their semi-basement home in Sillim-dong in southern Seoul. The government opened the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters to manage the aftermath of the rainfall.

“Days with over 50 millimeters of hourly precipitation have grown more frequent recently,” Jang said. Such rainfall is powerful enough to damage property or facilities.

“The phenomenon is like when once-in-a-century rainfall happens every three decades,” he noted.

Cars are stuck on flooded roads near Daechi Station in Gangnam District, southern Seoul on Aug. 8, 2022. [YONHAP]

He attributed the phenomenon to climate change.

“The amount of vapor contained in atmospheric air increases by around 10 percent with every one-degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) rise in the temperature,” he said. “Over the last century, surface temperatures on the Korean Peninsula have climbed two degrees Celsius.”

“The analysis of climatic factors determining [the severity of] heat wave showed this year’s summertime heat is likely to be less intense than in 2018,” Jang said.

In 2018, Seoul’s highest temperature was 39.6 degrees Celsius and Gangwon’s 41 degrees Celsius.

Yet, Jang said the national weather agency “cannot predict with certainty the maximum amount of rainfall” that the country could receive this summer.

The new chief of the state weather agency said Korea has challenging conditions for making weather forecasts. He also claimed that the country needs a system tailored to its environment — something he dubbed the KIAPS Integrated Model (KIM), a Korean version of the numerical weather prediction system. According to the KMA, the system quantitatively predicts the evolution of the atmospheric state.

He said the weather authority “cannot install a dense weather observation system” in the waters surrounding Korea on three sides, and that North Korea hinders the agency from obtaining precise data about air masses and atmospheric pressure originating from the North.

He added that mountains tend to transform the quality of rain clouds. Mountainous terrain accounts for 63 percent of South Korea's surface area.

Jang said forecasts these days feel like “competing in a race or playing hide-and-seek with the weather.”

His remarks suggest that weather volatility has increased due to climate change.

Countries intensely compete in meteorology, as they do in security. Thus, Jang said, countries should advance their own climate-related technology.

“Europe and the United Kingdom have the most advanced weather forecasting technology,” he said.

“Although Korea was named one of the world’s top six nations in terms of meteorological technology after developing the KIM system, we should participate in the tech race more eagerly to better protect our people from climate change.”

BY JEONG EUN-HYE, LEE SOO-JUNG [lee.soojung1@joongang.co.kr]