A new test of the president’s diplomacy

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A new test of the president’s diplomacy

Published: 08 Oct. 2024, 19:30 Updated: 09 Oct. 2024, 17:30

Shin Tong-chan
The author is a partner at Yulchon LLC.

As of Oct. 7, it has been one year since the war in the Gaza Strip began with a surprise attack on southern Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. Israel has nearly destroyed Hamas, including killing its leader Ismail Haniyeh. During the armed conflict, countless Palestinian civilians also have been killed.

The international community, including the United States, has called for a ceasefire, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instead escalated the war, targeting Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Yemeni Houthi rebels. Analysts say that Netanyahu’s move is based on his political calculation to deflect blame for having failed to prevent Hamas’s surprise attack. Fears of an all-out war between Israel and Iran have been raised after Iran fired more than 200 missiles at Israel in return for Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a major air strike.

The war is also a hot-button issue in the U.S. presidential election, which is less than a month away. As a significant number of Muslim voters in Michigan, a key battleground state, are withdrawing their support for the Democratic Party, President Joe Biden and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris are calling for a ceasefire and de-escalating the war in Gaza to win their votes.

But the Netanyahu administration is unlikely to offer political help to the Democratic Party, which had signed the nuclear deal of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Israel’s key enemy Iran. Netanyahu is more favorable to Donald Trump who had withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal and moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem during his presidency despite Islamic objections.

Netanyahu has been escalating the war, unwilling to cease fire in Gaza. He is poised to fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Middle East by crushing the anti-Israeli forces of the Iran-centered “Axis of Resistance.” The intention is to completely eliminate all anti-Israeli forces.

Will Iran remain refrained if Israel bombs its oil and gas production facilities and nuclear complexes? This is Iran’s dilemma as its moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian is seeking to improve relations with the West, including the United States, in order to lift economic sanctions.

However, it is unlikely that Washington’s Mideast policy will remain unchanged even with a more isolationist administration under Trump. If Netanyahu’s calculations work and Trump wins a close election based on the worsened Middle East situation, the butterfly effect could be unstoppable around the world.

First, Ukraine, currently struggling against Russia in a prolonged war, could be forced into a ceasefire. On the Korean Peninsula, Trump could continue his bromance with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and make a nuclear deal with Pyongyang or revive the idea of withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea. North Korea has long maintained close relationships with anti-American states and terrorist organizations in the Middle East openly and secretly.

Although the war in the Middle East is taking place thousands of miles away, we cannot just sit on our hands. A full-scale war between Israel and Iran could bring another round of oil price spikes, casting dark clouds over the Korean economy, which relies entirely on crude oil imports. In fact, the Israel-Hamas war, which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, already disrupted global supply chains and impacted consumer prices.

The logistics disruption could be further exacerbated as Houthi rebels are attacking merchant ships, which use the Suez Canal, to aid Hamas. The Korean government must intensify its measures to ensure the safety of Korean citizens and troops deployed abroad — such as the Dongmyeong Unit in Lebanon, the Cheonghae Unit in Somali waters and the Ark Unit in the United Arab Emirates.

There are also sensitive international political issues that have not been dealt with. The Korean government has not yet participated in economic sanctions against Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthi rebels, which have been in place for a long time by the international community, including the United States, the European Union and Japan. If the war in the Middle East escalates, there may be pressure for Korea to fulfill its international responsibilities.

Korea’s arms export certainly promotes national interest. But the country may face an ethical risk if its defense exports, including advanced arms, are used by one of the parties in the conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere. We need meticulous and careful preparation by the government and defense companies.

The war in the Gaza Strip and the escalating crisis in the Mideast present another diplomatic test for the Yoon Suk Yeol administration on a crusade to make Korea a global centerpiece country.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.