Reform and opening hold the key for China

Chang Se-jeong

The author is an editorial writer of the JoongAng Ilbo.

Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to be agonizing these days. At home, a red light is turned on for China’s economic depression. Beijing even stopped announcing the youth unemployment data. There was also a foreign media report that Xi was angered by bitter criticism from the elder statesmen who were concerned about the country at a Beidaihe meeting last month.

Externally, the U.S. pressure on China is deepening amid the competition for hegemony. Although a decade has passed since China started its Belt and Road Initiative, troubles continue. Above all, North Korea and Russia have recently made China uncomfortable by making arms deals. If China cannot properly respond to those problems at home and abroad, it will face serious internal and external conflicts.

The biggest stressor for Xi is the mounting pressure from the United States. Xi skipped the recent summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Plus Three and the East Asia Summit. He also didn’t attend the Group of 20 Summit hosted by India. Speculations are high that he was trying to avoid a face-to-face encounter with U.S. President Joe Biden. It is also unclear if Xi will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held in San Francisco in November.

Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot travel abroad after the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Xi has been staying in the country except for trips to Russia and South Africa since his third consecutive term was confirmed in March, fueling various speculations. This contrasts with the active overseas trips of Biden, who is in his 80s.

The diplomatic community says Xi’s decision to seclude himself in the Chinese leadership compound of Zhongnanhai is a strategic move to buy time. There are also analyses that the Chinese leadership is quite embarrassed by the “precision strikes” by Biden, a seasoned diplomatic strategist, unlike his predecessor Donald Trump who waved his fists wildly without distinguishing between friends and foes.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, a symbol of “wolf warrior diplomacy,” was dismissed in July amid a scandal. Politburo member Wang Yi, known as a moderate, returned to the post, giving China an opportunity to redefine its foreign affairs strategies. Observers are highly interested in China’s next move. The country is edgy about the bolstered Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation and closer relations between North Korea and Russia.

A diplomatic source speculated that China’s top leadership will present its next move after watching next year’s parliamentary elections in Korea and the next presidential election in the U.S. There could be cyber operations that influence Korea’s public opinion during the election period and there could be some movements to support the election of Trump, as China believes Trump is easier to engage in behind-the-scenes deals than Biden.

However, a bigger factor for China’s future is neither the outcome of Korea’s general election nor the U.S. presidential election. It’s China’s determination. If China obsesses over realizing the China Dream by overturning the existing global order by force, it will only fuel the vigilance of the international community. For example, if China is persuaded by Putin and joins the swamp of the war in Ukraine, there is no gain for China. If China again decides to support North Korean leader Kim Jong-un from behind, it will completely lose all of the positive assets it has accumulated in the international community.

Two strategic options lie before China — to return to the path of growth and development or go downhill. No matter what anyone says, the secret to China’s miraculous growth is the reform and opening designed by Deng Xiaoping. If history is rewound to the era of Mao Zedong, what benefit would it bring to China and its people? For China to restore its momentum for advancement, the only option is to accelerate reform and opening.

Xi must learn a lesson from Deng’s decision to return to the reform and opening initiative and establish diplomatic ties with Korea after his “Southern Tour” in 1992, when China was isolated under sanctions from the U.S, Japan and Europe following the massacre at Tiananmen Square in 1989. China must again reach out to Korea and seek cooperation. To this end, it must show respect for Korea and win the hearts of Koreans first. The international community is watching. Rude diplomacy such as its warning to Seoul — “Betting on U.S. victory and China’s defeat is a bad decision” — will only fuel anti-China sentiments in Korea.

The Korean government will likely send Prime Minister Han Duck-soo to the Hangzhou Asian Games, which opens on Sept. 24, to show respect for China. President Yoon Suk Yeol proposed a visit by Xi to Korea for the Korea-Japan-China summit. How about China responding to the offer by declaring its support for Busan’s bid to host the 2030 World Expo? China will be able to find its way back into the international community if its relations with Korea improve as the two countries move toward another 30 years of diplomatic relations.