No longer the pawn in chess

Yu Myung-hwan
The author, a former foreign minister, is a board member of the Korea Peace Foundation.

The situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula sounds alarms. When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February last year, the world was shocked. It is even more surprising that the war taking place in Europe has become a risk factor for the peninsula so quickly. Last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, accompanied by top military officials, visited Russia’s spaceport Vostochny Cosmodrome and met President Vladimir Putin. North Korea likely agreed to provide Russia with munitions and weapons for the war in Ukraine in return for high-tech technologies such as satellites and nuclear-powered submarines.

The deal not only poses a serious threat to our security but also disrupts the security order of Northeast Asia. In the mid-1980s, the Soviet Union promised technical support for the construction of a large-scale nuclear power plant in North Korea, but the deal was never materialized because the North’s intention to develop nuclear weapons was transparent.

While admitting to cooperation on satellite technology with North Korea, Putin tried to disguise it as a deal for civilian use. But you can’t separate civilian purposes from military purposes. If the transfer of technology related to developing weapons of mass destruction — and the conventional arms trade — actually takes place, Russia will lose its qualifications as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council because it directly violates the Security Council resolutions beyond the level of obstructing the council’s sanctions on North Korea.

Given the prominent emergence of the need for a tripartite cooperation among North Korea, China and Russia amid the war in Ukraine, sensitive military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow will most likely disturb Beijing. Russia could provide fuel and food to North Korea right away, but it is not yet certain how far Russia will go to transfer the sensitive nuclear and missile technology to the North.

To what extent would China accept the fast geopolitical changes in Northeast Asia? And what strategic benefit will Russia and China really have by helping their small neighbor develop nuclear weapons and missile systems so that it may threaten them? If Russia, in a desperate situation, receives ammunition and weapons support from North Korea, it will certainly damage Russia’s long-term and strategic interests. Korea, Japan and the United States — whose interests are directly related to geopolitical changes in Northeast Asia — must unite stronger and find countermeasures prudently.

Looking back, President Yoon Suk Yeol’s decision in March to take a step forward to improve Korea-Japan relations was a very wise strategic decision. Based on this, Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden adopted the Washington Declaration, equivalent to another alliance treaty between the two countries, at their summit in April. The geopolitical reality is that a strengthening of the Korea-U.S. alliance is impossible without an improvement in Korea-Japan relations.

The United States’ Northeast Asia security strategy is always premised on amicable relations between Seoul and Tokyo. In 1951, when the Korean War was in full swing, the U.S. strongly pressured then-President Syngman Rhee to pursue negotiations to establish diplomatic relations with Japan. Since then, Washington has continued making efforts to maintain smooth relations with Korea and Japan. When he was the vice president of the Obama administration, Biden also emphasized the importance of trilateral cooperation among Seoul, Tokyo and Washington. It is no coincidence that the Camp David summit was held in August. The historic significance of this big picture can only be seen if you look at it from afar.

Finding the means to stop the North Korea-Russia arms trade is a tough challenge for Korea on its own. The security consultative body already agreed during the Camp David summit that it should be put into operation as soon as possible. Observers recently said that the current situation surrounding the peninsula is similar to the end of the Joseon Dynasty. The reason we once lost our country was our failure to properly understand the international changes around us. From a geopolitical perspective, it is hard to deny that maintaining the independence of the country on our own is not so easy.

The prosperity of Korea today was possible as we stood on the side of liberal democracy with the help of the United States. Looking at the current miserable situation in the North, no further explanation is necessary. Of course, our national power has grown significantly, incomparable to that in the late Joseon Dynasty. Once a pawn on the chess board swayed by powers, Korea is now playing a game of geopolitical chess with powerful countries. We are proud to see President Yoon confidently attending the summits of the Group of Seven and the Group of 20, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.