Fearing Trump, Korea and U.S. get early start on defense cost-sharing talks

Diplomacy

Published: 17 Jan. 2024, 15:55

Fearing Trump, Korea and U.S. get early start on defense cost-sharing talks

In this file photo dated Aug. 22, 2022, members of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, U.S. Forces Korea, UN Command and other subordinate commands engage with each other during the joint Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise. [MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE]

Seoul and Washington agreed to begin negotiations to renew their defense cost-sharing deal within the year, starting earlier than usual in case Donald Trump is re-elected in the United States later this year, according to multiple diplomatic sources.

“The 11th Special Measures Agreement is set to expire at the end of next year,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lim Soo-suk told the press in Seoul on Tuesday. “The government will systematically and strategically prepare for the next round of negotiations and closely consult with the United States.”

Seoul has already selected its chief negotiator, a diplomatic insider told the JoongAng Ilbo. The two countries have decided to begin negotiations within the year, although the current agreement won’t expire for nearly two years.

The Special Measures Agreement (SMA) is a defense cost-sharing deal renewed every several years in which Seoul and Washington decide how much Seoul will pay to station the 28,500 U.S. troops in the country.

The first SMA was struck in 1991. Ten more followed.

Korea’s cost-sharing contribution increased by about 40 percent over the past decade.

Seoul's contribution rose from 790.4 billion won ($587.2 million) in 2010 to 1.1833 trillion won in 2021, when the last SMA was signed. Seoul’s annual contributions from 2022 through 2025 were to be determined based on increases in Korea's defense budget.

Sources told the JoongAng Ilbo that officials may be hurrying the next SMA due to the U.S. presidential election cycle — and, more specifically, the possible re-election of Trump.

During the Trump administration, Seoul and Washington struggled to seal the deal after Korea balked at the Trump administration’s initial demands of a fivefold hike in its contributions, or nearly $5 billion per year.

The negotiations, which began in September 2019, stretched on for 18 months, and the two sides could only reach an agreement in early 2021 after the Joe Biden administration took office.

However, some experts warned that negotiations with the Biden administration may not yield favorable results for Korea.

“The biggest potential challenge to the alliance is indeed the return of the Trump administration and its implications on the defense cost-sharing deal,” said Park Won-gon, professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.

“However, it remains to be seen if the negotiations with the Biden administration will yield favorable results for Korea or whether lawmakers on both sides will pass the new SMA.”

A diplomatic source said that regardless of who next takes office in the U.S., the election cycle could pressure either candidate into one-upping the other, even on deals with Korea.

“Biden is a presidential candidate just like Trump, and so it is questionable whether he will be particularly proactive in negotiations with Korea,” said the source. “Korea can easily get caught in the U.S. election campaign, as each side might try to use the SMA negotiations as leverage to win more support.”

The United States paid a total of $13.4 billion for its troops in Korea between 2016 and 2019, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, an independent agency that works for the U.S. Congress. Korea paid around $5.8 billion during that time, it said.

BY ESTHER CHUNG, PARK HYUN-JU [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]