Navigate the turbulent waters and stay on course

Cho Yoon-je
The author is professor emeritus at Sogang University and a member of the Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea.

The international order has already entered a new era of turbulence over the past eight years. Of course, the seeds have been growing for a long time. The U.S.-China conflict and the decline of the multilateral order are worsening year after year, and the Russia-Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas wars have intensified with no end in sight. Heated conflicts are erupting in every corner of the world. We have been sailing without a compass for a long time. As uncertainty increases, so does anxiety.

Inside Korea, meanwhile, endless factional battles rage. The situation will only get worse until the general elections in April. We are failing to tackle long-term challenges, whose impacts are destined to be great in the future, and our politics center on issues that will soon be meaningless. Can we have hope for the future if we spend today like this?

The U.S.-China relationship will have the most profound impact on the course of our economy, security and history. The evolution of multipolarity and multilateralism is in our favor, rather than a bipolar system where the world is divided into two sides. The U.S.-Soviet Cold War is not the same as the U.S.-China Cold War. Our choices must be different from the past to survive. We must avoid a situation where we are forced to choose between the United States and China.

The restoration of multilateralism may allow us such an opportunity. But restoring the old multilateral order is now impossible. International organizations of the 20th century, such as the United Nations and the nuclear non-proliferation regime, attempted to regulate behaviors of all countries, but also guaranteed privileges to a few powers. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank were no different. The multilateral order of the past has gradually lost its effectiveness, as rising powers demand more equal treatment while established powers resist such changes.

The old order is gone, but a new one has yet to appear. A global discussion and design process around global governance will take place during this transition period. As a middle power, we must participate in this discussion to protect ourselves from outside winds.

Reorganizing domestic governance is another important task that awaits us. After all, diplomacy is the process of applying domestic political consensus to the outside world. A country with serious internal divisions and conflicts is unlikely to have a coherent foreign policy.

Economic power is also the basis of diplomatic power. We are all familiar with the trajectory of the economy and national power of countries which have failed to restructure and secure growth engines for sustainable development due to shortsighted policies and implemented stopgap measures.

On the other hand, the world evolves rapidly. The growth of technology, in particular, is amazing. Advancement in medicine helped us overcome the Covid-19 pandemic in three years and prevented many deaths. The Third Plague Pandemic, which began in 1855 in the Qing Dynasty’s Yunnan Province, lasted more than 100 years and claimed 15 million lives in Asia alone. In the past, technology was about making life easier for people and advancing civilization. But today, it poses great threats that can disrupt our lifestyles and overturn the operational structure of our communities. This is especially true of the evolution of artificial intelligence.

The next decade will be a time of significant transition, both at home and abroad. Will Korea follow Japan’s path of the lost 30 years? The next decade will also provide a rough sketch of how the U.S.-China relationship will evolve. Will the two nations lead a bipolar global order, or can the world produce a system that manages the U.S.-China rivalry? How AI will change the world, and our lives, will also become clearer.

I hope that a new generation of leaders will emerge with the ability and vision to navigate the turbulent waters of international affairs and digital revolution without losing course. At the end of the day, the quality of governance and institutions and the wisdom and vision of leaders will determine this country’s future. I have high expectation that the April 10 parliamentary elections will be an opportunity to elect many such people to the National Assembly to reform our governance structure and social reward system so that we can have hope for the future.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.