It’s just an agreement, not a treaty

KIM PIL-GYU
The author is a Washington correspondent of the JoongAng Ilbo.

“They don’t know anything about Trump,” said a former high-level official in the Donald Trump administration upon hearing the news that the Korean government engages in an early negotiation with the U.S. government over defense cost-sharing.

Since the beginning of this year, Korean media reported that South Korea and the U.S. started negotiations early to sign the 12th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) on defense cost-sharing. As the new agreement will be applied from 2026, it will be no problem if the negotiations start next year. The two sides advanced the timing to brace for the possibility of former President Trump being reelected in November.

During his presidency, Trump demanded that South Korea raise its share of defense costs up to five times by threatening to withdraw U.S. troops from the South. The Yoon Suk Yeol administration naturally may want to keep the share at the current level. But the former U.S. official said it could be a “sloppy measure” that can attract Trump’s attention unnecessarily.

The former president’s slogan to use the taxpayers’ money wasted overseas for America is one of the promises his MAGA supporters rave over. He also demanded that NATO members pay more, even encouraging Russia to invade Europe.

How would Trump respond if he hears the news that the defense cost sharing between America and South Korea was predetermined to the level of the previous year? His eyes will quickly move from NATO to the U.S. forces in Korea. Given his eagerness to find any flaws with the Biden administration, it will be a good subject of attack throughout his campaign.

Moreover, sharing defense costs is an agreement, not a legally binding treaty. Theoretically, it is hard to stop either party from breaking it. Therefore, a hastily-struck cost sharing agreement will be a primary target of “erasing the traces of the former administration” if Trump returns to the White House.

The same can apply to the Yoon administration’s rush to document follow-up measures to the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), the outcome from last year’s Yoon-Biden summit. Seoul may want to do anything to prepare for the uncertainty of Trump’s second term. But if it can’t be done covertly, it may be better to do nothing.

Just imagine Trump saying, “Look, Korea, a rich country, ripped Biden off for billions of dollars, which I could have prevented” in the second half of the year when the U.S. presidential campaign is in full swing. The defense cost-sharing the Yoon administration wants to conclude early may become a nightmare later.